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TSM Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 627 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, TSM alerts reach +1.34% profit potential within 123 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.56%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.42x the typical drawdown.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 627 alerts, TSM typically reaches +1.34% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.1% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical TSM alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-14 | 09:29:48 | $199.68 | -0.72% | -0.82% | -0.63% | -0.52% | +2.11% | +3.29% | -1.11% | +0.15% | LOSS |
| 2025-02-13 | 09:26:32 | $203.33 | -1.50% | -1.33% | -1.22% | -1.15% | -0.74% | -0.16% | -0.29% | -0.71% | LOSS |
| 2025-02-12 | 09:27:49 | $205.5 | -0.54% | -0.11% | +0.12% | +0.12% | +0.43% | +0.76% | -1.21% | -0.29% | LOSS |
| 2025-02-11 | 09:29:06 | $205.59 | +0.10% | +1.02% | +0.77% | +1.08% | +1.53% | +2.07% | -2.23% | -0.22% | WIN |
| 2025-02-10 | 09:25:58 | $208.43 | +0.47% | +0.18% | -0.15% | -0.54% | -0.23% | +0.74% | -0.21% | -0.21% | WIN |
| 2025-02-07 | 09:26:39 | $212.26 | +0.27% | -0.61% | -0.82% | -1.43% | -2.89% | +0.45% | -0.00% | +0.35% | WIN |
| 2025-02-06 | 09:29:42 | $209.89 | +0.32% | -0.81% | -0.87% | -0.95% | +0.29% | +0.61% | -0.45% | +0.08% | WIN |
| 2025-02-05 | 09:29:06 | $205.39 | +0.02% | +0.18% | +0.49% | +0.56% | +1.55% | +2.48% | -0.76% | +0.30% | WIN |
| 2025-02-04 | 09:29:04 | $204.09 | -0.27% | -0.67% | +0.09% | +0.20% | -0.02% | +0.81% | -0.98% | -0.01% | LOSS |
| 2025-02-03 | 09:26:23 | $200.1 | -0.47% | -0.04% | +0.29% | +0.67% | -0.15% | +2.44% | -1.06% | -0.23% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-31 | 09:27:49 | $209.79 | -0.66% | -0.37% | +0.52% | +0.73% | -0.22% | +2.48% | -0.76% | +0.07% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-30 | 09:28:04 | $206.39 | +0.49% | +1.14% | +0.38% | +0.20% | +0.85% | +1.56% | -0.28% | +0.09% | WIN |
| 2025-01-29 | 09:28:25 | $204.23 | -0.53% | -0.28% | +0.39% | +0.04% | -0.93% | +1.09% | -0.97% | +0.13% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-28 | 09:26:10 | $195.43 | -0.37% | -1.32% | -0.20% | +0.85% | +3.57% | +3.79% | -1.52% | +0.11% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-27 | 09:29:19 | $196.96 | +4.78% | +1.73% | +1.84% | -0.24% | -2.36% | +5.10% | +0.01% | +0.04% | WIN |
| 2025-01-24 | 09:28:42 | $226.43 | -1.65% | -2.19% | -1.40% | -1.91% | -2.01% | +0.02% | -0.08% | -0.09% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-23 | 09:29:06 | $220.5 | -0.01% | +0.27% | +1.02% | +1.32% | +1.87% | +1.90% | -0.49% | -0.18% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-22 | 09:28:30 | $222.4 | +0.22% | -0.67% | -0.40% | +0.60% | +0.36% | +1.36% | -1.39% | -0.20% | WIN |
| 2025-01-21 | 09:27:49 | $214.96 | +0.10% | -1.03% | -0.68% | -0.40% | +1.74% | +2.41% | -1.35% | -0.23% | WIN |
| 2025-01-17 | 09:25:17 | $214.09 | -0.11% | -0.33% | +0.23% | -0.45% | -1.21% | +0.74% | -1.35% | +0.50% | LOSS |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ TSM Shows Negative Expectancy
With 48.6% win rate and -0.04% average gain, TSM alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider TSM for short-selling strategies.
📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →Why Analyze TSM with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TSM. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, TSM historically offers an average upside of +1.34% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 TSM Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 48.6%, TSM shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests TSM may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: TSM shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.04%). This suggests TSM is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.