FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

TSM Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 627 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 08, 1997 🔗 www.tsmc.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.73T 👥 Employees: 83,825
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is the world's largest dedicated chip foundry, with about 70% market share in 2025. TSMC was founded in 1987 as a joint venture of Philips, the government of Taiwan, and private investors. It went public in Taiwan in 1994 and as an ADR in the US in 1997. TSMC's scale and high-quality technology allow the firm to generate solid operating margins, even in the highly competitive foundry business. Furthermore, the shift to the fabless business model has created tailwinds for TSMC. The foundry leader has an illustrious base of customers, including Apple, AMD, and Nvidia, that look to apply its cutting-edge process technologies to their semiconductor designs. TSMC employs more than 83,000 people.
📊
627
Total Alerts
🎯
48.6%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.04%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.34%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.48%
Avg Loser: -0.42%
Best: +4.78%
Worst: -2.46%
Trades: 278/342

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.4%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.67%
Avg Loser: -0.70%
Best: +4.82%
Worst: -3.43%
Trades: 291/335

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.7%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +0.81%
Avg Loser: -0.85%
Best: +6.26%
Worst: -3.62%
Trades: 293/331

60MIN

Win Rate: 46.6%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +1.01%
Avg Loser: -0.97%
Best: +6.41%
Worst: -4.77%
Trades: 292/334

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.6%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +1.38%
Avg Loser: -1.39%
Best: +10.92%
Worst: -6.19%
Trades: 304/320

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.34%
Best MFE: +12.54%
Avg Time to MFE: 123 min

On average, TSM alerts reach +1.34% profit potential within 123 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.56%
Worst MAE: -4.06%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.56%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.42:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.42x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 627 alerts, TSM typically reaches +1.34% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 627
Gap Up % 43.9%
Avg Gap -0.03%
Best Gap +2.78%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TSM alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:29:48 $199.68 -0.72% -0.82% -0.63% -0.52% +2.11% +3.29% -1.11% +0.15% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:26:32 $203.33 -1.50% -1.33% -1.22% -1.15% -0.74% -0.16% -0.29% -0.71% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:27:49 $205.5 -0.54% -0.11% +0.12% +0.12% +0.43% +0.76% -1.21% -0.29% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:29:06 $205.59 +0.10% +1.02% +0.77% +1.08% +1.53% +2.07% -2.23% -0.22% WIN
2025-02-10 09:25:58 $208.43 +0.47% +0.18% -0.15% -0.54% -0.23% +0.74% -0.21% -0.21% WIN
2025-02-07 09:26:39 $212.26 +0.27% -0.61% -0.82% -1.43% -2.89% +0.45% -0.00% +0.35% WIN
2025-02-06 09:29:42 $209.89 +0.32% -0.81% -0.87% -0.95% +0.29% +0.61% -0.45% +0.08% WIN
2025-02-05 09:29:06 $205.39 +0.02% +0.18% +0.49% +0.56% +1.55% +2.48% -0.76% +0.30% WIN
2025-02-04 09:29:04 $204.09 -0.27% -0.67% +0.09% +0.20% -0.02% +0.81% -0.98% -0.01% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:26:23 $200.1 -0.47% -0.04% +0.29% +0.67% -0.15% +2.44% -1.06% -0.23% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:27:49 $209.79 -0.66% -0.37% +0.52% +0.73% -0.22% +2.48% -0.76% +0.07% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:28:04 $206.39 +0.49% +1.14% +0.38% +0.20% +0.85% +1.56% -0.28% +0.09% WIN
2025-01-29 09:28:25 $204.23 -0.53% -0.28% +0.39% +0.04% -0.93% +1.09% -0.97% +0.13% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:26:10 $195.43 -0.37% -1.32% -0.20% +0.85% +3.57% +3.79% -1.52% +0.11% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:29:19 $196.96 +4.78% +1.73% +1.84% -0.24% -2.36% +5.10% +0.01% +0.04% WIN
2025-01-24 09:28:42 $226.43 -1.65% -2.19% -1.40% -1.91% -2.01% +0.02% -0.08% -0.09% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:29:06 $220.5 -0.01% +0.27% +1.02% +1.32% +1.87% +1.90% -0.49% -0.18% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:28:30 $222.4 +0.22% -0.67% -0.40% +0.60% +0.36% +1.36% -1.39% -0.20% WIN
2025-01-21 09:27:49 $214.96 +0.10% -1.03% -0.68% -0.40% +1.74% +2.41% -1.35% -0.23% WIN
2025-01-17 09:25:17 $214.09 -0.11% -0.33% +0.23% -0.45% -1.21% +0.74% -1.35% +0.50% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ TSM Shows Negative Expectancy

With 48.6% win rate and -0.04% average gain, TSM alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider TSM for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze TSM with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TSM. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TSM historically offers an average upside of +1.34% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TSM Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.6%, TSM shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests TSM may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: TSM shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.04%). This suggests TSM is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.