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TWST Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 6 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-11 → 2024-10-14

⚠️ Small sample size (6 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Twist Bioscience Corporation Common Stock BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES) (SIC 2836)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 31, 2018 🔗 www.twistbioscience.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.63B 👥 Employees: 979
Twist Bioscience Corp is a synthetic biology company that has developed a disruptive DNA synthesis platform to industrialize the engineering of biology. The company's proprietary semiconductor-based manufacturing process synthesizes DNA on silicon rather than traditional plastic plates, enabling the production of high-quality synthetic DNA faster, more affordably, and at scale. This platform overcomes conventional inefficiencies, supports cost-effective, high-throughput synthesis, and allows researchers to accelerate innovation. Geographically, the company operates across the Americas, EMEA, and APAC, deriving the majority of its revenue from the Americas.
📊
6
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-2.50%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+4.84%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 16.7%
Avg Gain: -0.76%
Avg Winner: +0.29%
Avg Loser: -0.97%
Best: +0.29%
Worst: -2.26%
Trades: 1/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 16.7%
Avg Gain: -3.14%
Avg Winner: +0.48%
Avg Loser: -3.87%
Best: +0.48%
Worst: -6.53%
Trades: 1/5

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -2.50%
Avg Winner: +0.82%
Avg Loser: -5.82%
Best: +1.25%
Worst: -12.77%
Trades: 3/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.10%
Avg Winner: +1.42%
Avg Loser: -3.63%
Best: +2.23%
Worst: -9.32%
Trades: 3/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.09%
Avg Winner: +4.61%
Avg Loser: -6.78%
Best: +5.04%
Worst: -13.40%
Trades: 3/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.84%
Best MFE: +9.71%
Avg Time to MFE: 197 min

On average, TWST alerts reach +4.84% profit potential within 197 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -4.16%
Worst MAE: -12.85%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 4.16%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.16:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 6 alerts, TWST typically reaches +4.84% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 6
Gap Up % 33.3%
Avg Gap -0.23%
Best Gap +0.81%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How TWST compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
TWST: -0.76% Sector: -0.41% -0.35%
EOD Gain
TWST: -1.09% Sector: +1233.50% -1234.59%
Avg MFE
TWST: +4.84% Sector: +6.69% -1.85%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TWST alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-14 09:28:28 $44.4 -0.29% -0.82% -0.78% +0.15% +5.04% +5.70% -1.58% -0.41% LOSS
2023-11-01 09:29:00 $15.76 -1.84% -3.28% -3.90% -1.40% -0.89% +0.06% -4.10% -0.32% LOSS
2023-05-05 09:25:00 $12.4 -2.26% -3.23% +1.25% -0.16% +3.95% +6.37% -3.87% +0.81% LOSS
2022-11-18 09:25:00 $28.65 -0.03% -6.53% -12.77% -9.32% -13.40% +2.97% -1.57% +0.17% LOSS
2022-11-15 09:25:00 $29.03 -0.41% -5.49% +0.55% +1.88% +4.82% +9.71% -12.85% -0.93% LOSS
2022-02-11 09:25:00 $59.6 +0.29% +0.48% +0.67% +2.23% -6.06% +4.24% -1.01% -0.69% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ TWST Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -2.50% average gain, TWST alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider TWST for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze TWST with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TWST. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TWST historically offers an average upside of +4.84% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TWST Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, TWST shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests TWST may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: TWST shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -2.50%). This suggests TWST is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.