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UBS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 167 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-04 → 2025-02-04

🏢 Company Profile

UBS Group AG
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Feb 08, 1990 🔗 www.ubs.com
💰 Market Cap: $150.04B 👥 Employees: 128,983
UBS is a global financial institution built around its core strength in wealth management, serving high and ultra-high-net-worth individuals. In Switzerland, it also operates as a traditional retail and commercial bank. Its investment bank and asset management divisions complement the wealth business, providing tailored solutions to UBS clients while serving third-party customers by leveraging UBS' global reach and expertise.
📊
167
Total Alerts
🎯
53.0%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.03%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+1.04%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 44.6%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.23%
Avg Loser: -0.23%
Best: +1.15%
Worst: -0.97%
Trades: 74/75

15MIN

Win Rate: 44.0%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.36%
Avg Loser: -0.35%
Best: +2.84%
Worst: -1.15%
Trades: 73/91

30MIN

Win Rate: 49.4%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.45%
Avg Loser: -0.49%
Best: +2.34%
Worst: -1.71%
Trades: 82/75

60MIN

Win Rate: 53.0%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.56%
Avg Loser: -0.72%
Best: +2.76%
Worst: -2.10%
Trades: 88/74

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 47.3%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.21%
Avg Loser: -1.08%
Best: +5.69%
Worst: -3.81%
Trades: 79/86

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.04%
Best MFE: +6.20%
Avg Time to MFE: 155 min

On average, UBS alerts reach +1.04% profit potential within 155 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.38%
Worst MAE: -2.18%
Avg Time to MAE: 26 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.38%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.73:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.73x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 167 alerts, UBS typically reaches +1.04% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 167
Gap Up % 38.3%
Avg Gap -0.01%
Best Gap +0.57%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical UBS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-04 09:26:25 $32.94 - -1.15% -0.65% -1.02% -1.61% +0.36% -0.24% -0.02% -
2025-01-03 09:28:51 $31.61 -0.32% -0.16% -0.38% -1.04% -0.60% -0.02% -0.41% -0.06% LOSS
2024-10-30 09:27:19 $31.57 -0.06% +0.25% +0.60% +0.25% -0.70% +1.08% -0.41% -0.02% LOSS
2024-09-26 09:28:18 $30.99 -0.06% +0.11% -0.21% -0.45% +0.06% +0.39% -0.61% -0.06% LOSS
2024-08-14 09:27:52 $30.49 +0.54% +1.02% +0.95% +1.26% +1.31% +1.77% -0.13% +0.20% WIN
2024-08-02 09:29:33 $28.47 -0.74% +0.02% -0.46% -0.74% -1.55% +0.11% -0.86% -0.07% LOSS
2024-05-07 09:29:41 $30.1 -0.70% -0.68% -0.88% -1.06% -1.86% -0.03% -0.17% -0.03% LOSS
2024-04-22 09:26:55 $27.78 -0.11% -0.29% +0.18% +0.29% +0.68% +1.08% -0.32% +0.18% LOSS
2024-04-16 09:27:26 $28.24 -0.32% -0.81% -0.64% -0.83% -0.89% +0.04% +0.04% -0.18% LOSS
2024-04-10 09:26:32 $29.66 +0.29% +0.17% +0.17% +0.24% -0.71% +0.81% -0.10% +0.57% WIN
2024-03-28 09:29:13 $30.47 +0.46% +0.38% +0.71% +0.26% +0.82% +1.12% +0.07% +0.07% WIN
2024-03-27 09:29:03 $31.2 +0.48% +0.43% +0.35% +0.19% +0.64% +0.64% -0.16% +0.13% WIN
2024-03-15 09:27:42 $31.77 -0.35% -0.09% -0.16% +0.22% +0.50% +1.13% -0.63% -0.35% LOSS
2024-03-08 09:26:41 $30.99 -0.02% +0.42% +0.10% -0.21% -0.45% +0.65% -0.55% -0.26% LOSS
2024-03-07 09:26:18 $29.67 +0.03% -0.15% +0.27% +0.29% +0.47% +0.71% -0.27% +0.10% WIN
2024-02-15 09:29:57 $27.67 +0.40% +0.61% +0.65% +0.49% +0.72% +0.89% -0.04% -0.04% WIN
2024-02-09 09:25:44 $27.85 -0.61% -0.57% -0.72% -0.90% +0.18% +0.18% -0.99% -0.50% LOSS
2024-02-06 09:25:03 $28.34 -0.14% +0.25% +0.09% -0.25% -0.67% +0.37% -1.16% +0.11% LOSS
2024-02-01 00:00:00 $29.48 - - - - +0.10% +1.09% +0.85% -0.10% -
2023-12-29 09:26:00 $31.01 -0.19% -0.13% +0.19% +0.77% -0.35% +0.83% -0.31% -0.10% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ UBS Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 53.0% win rate, UBS has -0.03% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making UBS profitable.

🔧 Fix UBS Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze UBS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for UBS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, UBS historically offers an average upside of +1.04% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 UBS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 53.0%, UBS shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-0.72%) outweigh average wins (+0.56%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: UBS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.03%). This suggests UBS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.