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UFCS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 1 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-22 → 2022-02-22

⚠️ Small sample size (1 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Feb 18, 1975 🔗 www.ufginsurance.com
💰 Market Cap: $876.4M 👥 Employees: 877
United Fire Group Inc is engaged in the business of writing property and casualty insurance and selling annuities through a network of independent agencies. The company's only operating segment is property and casualty insurance, which includes commercial lines insurance, personal lines insurance, and assumed reinsurance. The primary source of revenue is premium and investment income.
📊
1
Total Alerts
🎯
0.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.32%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
-0.32%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.32%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.32%
Best: -0.32%
Worst: -0.32%
Trades: 0/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -3.94%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -3.94%
Best: -3.94%
Worst: -3.94%
Trades: 0/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -5.78%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -5.78%
Best: -5.78%
Worst: -5.78%
Trades: 0/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: -0.32%
Best MFE: -0.32%
Avg Time to MFE: 5 min

On average, UFCS alerts reach -0.32% profit potential within 5 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.90%
Worst MAE: -1.90%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.90%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.17:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 1 alerts, UFCS typically reaches -0.32% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around -0.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 1
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -1.90%
Best Gap -1.90%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE

How UFCS compares to 22 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
UFCS: +0.00% Sector: +0.01% -0.01%
EOD Gain
UFCS: +0.00% Sector: +58.36% -58.36%
Avg MFE
UFCS: +0.00% Sector: +2.97% -2.97%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical UFCS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2022-02-22 09:25:00 $29.42 -0.32% - - -3.94% -5.78% -0.32% -1.90% -1.90% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ UFCS Shows Negative Expectancy

With 0.0% win rate and -0.32% average gain, UFCS alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider UFCS for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze UFCS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for UFCS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, UFCS historically offers an average upside of -0.32% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 UFCS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 0.0%, UFCS shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests UFCS may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: UFCS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.32%). This suggests UFCS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.