Latest signal:
UGI Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 9 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-07-28 → 2025-01-15
⚠️ Small sample size (9 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, UGI alerts reach +1.00% profit potential within 129 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.57%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 9 alerts, UGI typically reaches +1.00% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.8% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
🏭 Sector Comparison: GAS & OTHER SERVICES COMBINED
How UGI compares to 3 other tickers in the same sector.
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical UGI alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-15 | 09:29:31 | $29.8 | -0.17% | -1.44% | -1.48% | -1.51% | -1.61% | +0.09% | -0.27% | -0.13% | LOSS |
| 2024-09-12 | 09:27:48 | $23.47 | +0.68% | +0.53% | +0.17% | +0.19% | +0.09% | +0.85% | -0.04% | +0.09% | WIN |
| 2024-09-03 | 09:25:55 | $25.06 | -1.00% | -1.04% | -1.12% | -1.00% | -0.60% | -0.24% | -1.38% | -0.88% | LOSS |
| 2024-08-20 | 09:25:49 | $24.55 | -0.90% | -0.33% | -0.77% | -0.06% | +0.33% | +0.41% | -0.90% | -0.61% | LOSS |
| 2024-08-05 | 09:27:32 | $24.18 | -0.25% | -1.08% | -1.34% | -1.74% | -1.03% | +0.62% | -0.12% | +0.45% | LOSS |
| 2024-06-10 | 09:26:00 | $23.03 | +0.85% | +1.22% | +1.82% | +1.48% | +0.96% | +2.26% | +0.39% | +0.39% | WIN |
| 2024-06-07 | 09:29:24 | $23.0 | -0.43% | +0.50% | +0.11% | +0.80% | +1.09% | +2.00% | -0.78% | -0.78% | LOSS |
| 2023-08-31 | 09:27:00 | $24.75 | +0.63% | +1.37% | +1.94% | +1.70% | +1.74% | +3.33% | -0.24% | +0.91% | WIN |
| 2023-07-28 | 09:25:00 | $27.0 | -1.33% | -1.30% | -0.85% | -1.00% | -1.15% | -0.30% | -1.78% | -1.33% | LOSS |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ UGI Shows Negative Expectancy
Despite a 55.6% win rate, UGI has -0.02% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making UGI profitable.
🔧 Fix UGI Risk/Reward →Why Analyze UGI with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for UGI. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, UGI historically offers an average upside of +1.00% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 UGI Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 55.6%, UGI shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.10%) outweigh average wins (+0.84%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: UGI shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.02%). This suggests UGI is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.