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Latest signal:

UGL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-24 → 2024-06-14

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Dec 03, 2008
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
60.0%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.69%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+0.68%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -0.15%
Avg Winner: +0.06%
Avg Loser: -0.21%
Best: +0.06%
Worst: -0.40%
Trades: 1/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.46%
Avg Winner: +0.11%
Avg Loser: -0.84%
Best: +0.12%
Worst: -1.68%
Trades: 2/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.51%
Avg Winner: +0.07%
Avg Loser: -0.90%
Best: +0.11%
Worst: -2.31%
Trades: 2/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: -0.69%
Avg Winner: +0.26%
Avg Loser: -2.12%
Best: +0.45%
Worst: -3.48%
Trades: 3/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -60.26%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -60.26%
Best: -0.09%
Worst: -76.44%
Trades: 0/5

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.68%
Best MFE: +1.43%
Avg Time to MFE: 148 min

On average, UGL alerts reach +0.68% profit potential within 148 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.48%
Worst MAE: -0.99%
Avg Time to MAE: 30 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.48%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.42:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, UGL typically reaches +0.68% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 40.0%
Avg Gap -0.00%
Best Gap +0.16%

🏭 Sector Comparison: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS

How UGL compares to 41 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
UGL: -0.15% Sector: -0.01% -0.15%
EOD Gain
UGL: -60.26% Sector: +257.70% -317.97%
Avg MFE
UGL: +0.68% Sector: +1.89% -1.21%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical UGL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-06-14 09:27:22 $77.59 -0.40% +0.10% +0.04% +0.45% -74.94% +0.59% -0.45% -0.13% LOSS
2022-07-25 09:25:00 $51.1 -0.02% -0.28% -0.27% -0.76% -75.10% -0.02% -0.02% -0.02% LOSS
2022-03-09 09:25:00 $70.4 -0.10% -0.57% -0.11% +0.13% -0.09% +1.43% -0.99% +0.16% LOSS
2022-03-03 09:25:00 $65.93 +0.06% +0.12% +0.11% +0.21% -74.75% +1.40% -0.59% -0.05% WIN
2022-02-24 09:25:00 $67.88 -0.32% -1.68% -2.31% -3.48% -76.44% +0.01% -0.35% +0.01% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ UGL Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 60.0% win rate, UGL has -0.69% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making UGL profitable.

🔧 Fix UGL Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze UGL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for UGL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, UGL historically offers an average upside of +0.68% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 UGL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 60.0%, UGL shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-2.12%) outweigh average wins (+0.26%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: UGL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.69%). This suggests UGL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.