Latest signal:
UGL Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-24 → 2024-06-14
⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, UGL alerts reach +0.68% profit potential within 148 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.48%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, UGL typically reaches +0.68% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.5% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
🏭 Sector Comparison: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS
How UGL compares to 41 other tickers in the same sector.
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical UGL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-14 | 09:27:22 | $77.59 | -0.40% | +0.10% | +0.04% | +0.45% | -74.94% | +0.59% | -0.45% | -0.13% | LOSS |
| 2022-07-25 | 09:25:00 | $51.1 | -0.02% | -0.28% | -0.27% | -0.76% | -75.10% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.02% | LOSS |
| 2022-03-09 | 09:25:00 | $70.4 | -0.10% | -0.57% | -0.11% | +0.13% | -0.09% | +1.43% | -0.99% | +0.16% | LOSS |
| 2022-03-03 | 09:25:00 | $65.93 | +0.06% | +0.12% | +0.11% | +0.21% | -74.75% | +1.40% | -0.59% | -0.05% | WIN |
| 2022-02-24 | 09:25:00 | $67.88 | -0.32% | -1.68% | -2.31% | -3.48% | -76.44% | +0.01% | -0.35% | +0.01% | LOSS |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ UGL Shows Negative Expectancy
Despite a 60.0% win rate, UGL has -0.69% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making UGL profitable.
🔧 Fix UGL Risk/Reward →Why Analyze UGL with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for UGL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, UGL historically offers an average upside of +0.68% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 UGL Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 60.0%, UGL shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-2.12%) outweigh average wins (+0.26%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: UGL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.69%). This suggests UGL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.