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UNP Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 62 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-19 → 2025-01-29

⚠️ Small sample size (62 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 20, 1969 🔗 www.up.com
💰 Market Cap: $136.22B 👥 Employees: 28,871
Omaha, Nebraska-based Union Pacific is the largest public railroad in North America. Operating on more than 30,000 miles of track in the western two-thirds of the US, Union Pacific generated $24 billion of revenue in 2024 by hauling coal, industrial products, intermodal containers, agricultural goods, chemicals, fertilizers, and automotive goods. Union Pacific owns about one-fourth of Mexican railroad Ferromex and historically derives roughly 10% of its revenue hauling freight to and from Mexico.
📊
62
Total Alerts
🎯
53.2%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.01%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.01%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 53.2%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.49%
Avg Loser: -0.58%
Best: +1.10%
Worst: -2.16%
Trades: 33/29

15MIN

Win Rate: 48.4%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.58%
Avg Loser: -0.63%
Best: +1.56%
Worst: -1.70%
Trades: 30/32

30MIN

Win Rate: 53.2%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.73%
Avg Loser: -0.79%
Best: +1.99%
Worst: -2.19%
Trades: 33/29

60MIN

Win Rate: 51.6%
Avg Gain: -0.08%
Avg Winner: +0.85%
Avg Loser: -1.06%
Best: +3.06%
Worst: -3.58%
Trades: 32/30

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 41.9%
Avg Gain: -0.20%
Avg Winner: +1.29%
Avg Loser: -1.28%
Best: +4.73%
Worst: -3.74%
Trades: 26/36

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.01%
Best MFE: +5.50%
Avg Time to MFE: 112 min

On average, UNP alerts reach +1.01% profit potential within 112 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.36%
Worst MAE: -2.26%
Avg Time to MAE: 14 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.36%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.81:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.81x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 62 alerts, UNP typically reaches +1.01% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 62
Gap Up % 54.8%
Avg Gap +0.04%
Best Gap +1.12%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RAILROADS, LINE-HAUL OPERATING

How UNP compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
UNP: -0.01% Sector: -0.02% +0.01%
EOD Gain
UNP: -0.20% Sector: -0.12% -0.08%
Avg MFE
UNP: +1.01% Sector: +1.07% -0.06%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical UNP alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-29 09:26:50 $250.0 +0.64% +0.84% +0.76% +0.74% -0.18% +1.20% -0.38% -0.12% WIN
2024-12-03 09:29:39 $240.66 -1.09% -1.70% -1.52% -1.87% -1.52% +0.44% -0.24% +0.44% LOSS
2024-11-12 09:28:28 $243.04 -0.58% -0.41% -0.72% -0.72% -1.70% -0.16% -0.65% -0.28% LOSS
2024-08-22 09:27:33 $246.0 +0.20% +0.07% -0.40% -0.61% -0.68% +0.41% -0.01% +0.01% WIN
2024-06-07 09:25:11 $227.74 -0.00% -0.02% +0.24% +0.83% +0.10% +1.31% -0.46% -0.09% LOSS
2024-05-24 09:26:23 $233.19 -0.27% +0.16% +0.04% +0.12% -0.49% +0.40% -0.95% -0.51% LOSS
2024-05-23 09:29:23 $234.71 -0.67% -0.03% -0.44% -0.62% -0.85% +0.07% -0.94% -0.20% LOSS
2024-04-03 09:26:10 $241.83 +0.81% +0.72% +1.04% +0.84% -0.12% +1.31% +0.28% +0.43% WIN
2024-03-13 09:27:51 $251.18 -0.43% -0.59% -0.43% -0.63% -0.77% -0.16% -0.83% -0.37% LOSS
2024-03-08 09:28:45 $248.7 -0.29% +0.06% +0.14% +0.08% +0.91% +1.02% -0.44% -0.18% LOSS
2024-03-06 09:26:42 $255.58 -1.33% -1.02% -0.76% -0.65% -1.79% -0.23% -1.76% -0.84% LOSS
2024-02-22 09:29:38 $251.67 -0.21% -0.51% -0.09% -0.11% +1.13% +1.31% -0.62% +0.13% LOSS
2024-02-21 09:25:28 $247.39 +0.39% +0.58% +0.96% +1.14% +1.59% +1.65% -0.03% +0.83% WIN
2023-12-04 09:29:00 $230.99 +0.68% +0.94% +1.03% +1.10% +1.26% +1.61% -0.19% -0.10% WIN
2023-10-19 09:28:00 $218.5 -1.12% -1.25% -1.63% -2.62% -3.74% +0.73% -0.52% +0.03% LOSS
2023-09-20 09:26:00 $211.77 +1.01% +0.83% +0.98% +1.05% +0.57% +1.48% +0.56% +0.64% WIN
2023-09-13 09:26:00 $213.87 -0.21% -0.58% -0.68% -1.30% -0.81% +0.07% -0.32% +0.01% LOSS
2023-08-24 09:25:00 $222.0 +0.31% +0.66% +0.91% +0.83% +0.23% +1.01% +0.22% +0.58% WIN
2023-08-17 09:28:00 $223.99 +1.01% +0.93% +0.94% +1.12% +0.17% +1.20% +0.46% +0.58% WIN
2023-08-16 09:26:00 $225.54 -0.07% +0.06% +0.03% -0.16% -0.41% +0.27% -0.24% -0.08% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ UNP Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 53.2% win rate, UNP has -0.01% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making UNP profitable.

🔧 Fix UNP Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze UNP with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for UNP. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, UNP historically offers an average upside of +1.01% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 UNP Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 53.2%, UNP shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-0.58%) outweigh average wins (+0.49%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: UNP shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.01%). This suggests UNP is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.