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VAC Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-12-06 → 2023-10-19

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION REAL ESTATE AGENTS & MANAGERS (FOR OTHERS) (SIC 6531)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Nov 08, 2011 🔗 www.marriottvacationsworldwide.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.99B 👥 Employees: 22,300
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp functions in the United States leisure industry. It owns and manages a cluster of resorts and accommodation facilities under trademarks like Marriott Vacation Club, Grand Residencies, and The Ritz-Carlton Destination Club predominantly in the United States. Some of its properties are also spread across Europe and Asia Pacific. Marriott's majority revenue components include the sale of vacation ownership products such as luxurious vacation packages. In addition, it offers purchase money financing to the end users of its core services. The company operates in two reportable segments: Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. The majority of revenue is derived from the Vacation Ownership segment.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
0.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.11%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.14%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.11%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.11%
Best: -0.01%
Worst: -0.21%
Trades: 0/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.51%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.51%
Best: -0.40%
Worst: -0.63%
Trades: 0/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.70%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.70%
Best: -0.67%
Worst: -0.74%
Trades: 0/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.56%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.56%
Best: -0.53%
Worst: -0.59%
Trades: 0/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -3.69%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -3.69%
Best: -2.85%
Worst: -4.53%
Trades: 0/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.14%
Best MFE: +0.23%
Avg Time to MFE: 114 min

On average, VAC alerts reach +0.14% profit potential within 114 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.92%
Worst MAE: -1.18%
Avg Time to MAE: 96 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.92%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.15:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, VAC typically reaches +0.14% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.26%
Best Gap -0.01%

🏭 Sector Comparison: REAL ESTATE AGENTS & MANAGERS (FOR OTHERS)

How VAC compares to 7 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
VAC: -0.11% Sector: -0.28% +0.17%
EOD Gain
VAC: -3.69% Sector: +166.55% -170.23%
Avg MFE
VAC: +0.14% Sector: +5.24% -5.10%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical VAC alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-10-19 09:27:00 $93.84 -0.01% -0.63% -0.74% -0.53% -2.85% +0.05% -1.18% -0.01% LOSS
2022-12-06 09:25:00 $144.75 -0.21% -0.40% -0.67% -0.59% -4.53% +0.23% -0.65% -0.52% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ VAC Shows Negative Expectancy

With 0.0% win rate and -0.11% average gain, VAC alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider VAC for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze VAC with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for VAC. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, VAC historically offers an average upside of +0.14% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 VAC Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 0.0%, VAC shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests VAC may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: VAC shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.11%). This suggests VAC is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.