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VG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 9 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-11 → 2025-01-27

⚠️ Small sample size (9 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jan 24, 2025 🔗 www.ventureglobal.com
💰 Market Cap: $24.19B 👥 Employees: 1,500
Venture Global operates two liquefied natural gas production facilities in Louisiana. It has pioneered the use of modular, factory-built equipment, producing high yields. With a substantial development plan, it seeks to become a vertically integrated LNG producer and supplier to end consumers around the world.
📊
9
Total Alerts
🎯
55.6%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-1.52%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+0.76%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.62%
Avg Loser: -0.37%
Best: +0.99%
Worst: -1.00%
Trades: 3/6

15MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -0.55%
Avg Winner: +0.32%
Avg Loser: -2.07%
Best: +0.85%
Worst: -4.91%
Trades: 4/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.46%
Avg Winner: +0.42%
Avg Loser: -1.36%
Best: +0.90%
Worst: -3.83%
Trades: 3/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.70%
Avg Winner: +0.32%
Avg Loser: -1.21%
Best: +0.62%
Worst: -5.85%
Trades: 3/6

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: -1.52%
Avg Winner: +0.50%
Avg Loser: -4.04%
Best: +1.04%
Worst: -14.83%
Trades: 5/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.76%
Best MFE: +1.64%
Avg Time to MFE: 222 min

On average, VG alerts reach +0.76% profit potential within 222 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.48%
Worst MAE: -1.62%
Avg Time to MAE: 26 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.48%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.58:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 9 alerts, VG typically reaches +0.76% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 9
Gap Up % 44.4%
Avg Gap -0.04%
Best Gap +0.50%

🏭 Sector Comparison: NATURAL GAS DISTRIBUTION

How VG compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
VG: -0.04% Sector: +0.01% -0.05%
EOD Gain
VG: -1.52% Sector: -1.19% -0.33%
Avg MFE
VG: +0.76% Sector: +2.29% -1.53%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical VG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-27 09:27:48 $23.4 -0.64% -4.91% -3.83% -5.85% -14.83% +0.81% -0.64% -0.51% LOSS
2022-07-15 09:25:00 $20.97 -0.00% - - -0.02% +0.05% +0.10% -0.05% -0.05% LOSS
2022-06-28 09:25:00 $18.55 -0.27% -0.86% -0.81% -0.32% -0.49% +0.92% -1.62% -0.27% LOSS
2022-06-10 09:25:00 $18.46 -0.27% -0.43% -0.27% -0.76% -0.81% +0.65% -1.03% +0.22% LOSS
2022-04-05 09:25:00 $20.25 +0.17% +0.17% +0.20% +0.20% +0.59% +0.74% -0.05% +0.44% WIN
2022-03-02 09:25:00 $20.02 +0.70% - -0.52% -0.25% +0.15% +0.80% +0.30% +0.50% WIN
2022-02-28 09:25:00 $20.11 +0.99% +0.85% +0.90% +0.62% +1.04% +1.64% -0.05% +0.20% WIN
2022-02-16 09:25:00 $19.96 -1.00% +0.20% +0.18% +0.15% +0.65% +1.05% -1.10% -0.85% LOSS
2022-02-11 09:25:00 $20.8 -0.02% +0.05% - -0.02% -0.05% +0.14% -0.10% - LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ VG Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 55.6% win rate, VG has -1.52% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making VG profitable.

🔧 Fix VG Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze VG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for VG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, VG historically offers an average upside of +0.76% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 VG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 55.6%, VG shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-4.04%) outweigh average wins (+0.50%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: VG shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -1.52%). This suggests VG is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.