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Latest signal:

VGSH Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 67 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-10 → 2024-05-31

⚠️ Small sample size (67 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Nov 23, 2009
📊
67
Total Alerts
🎯
49.3%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.00%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+0.08%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 38.8%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.02%
Avg Loser: -0.03%
Best: +0.07%
Worst: -0.09%
Trades: 26/28

15MIN

Win Rate: 44.8%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.03%
Avg Loser: -0.03%
Best: +0.10%
Worst: -0.14%
Trades: 30/37

30MIN

Win Rate: 41.8%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.03%
Avg Loser: -0.04%
Best: +0.07%
Worst: -0.21%
Trades: 28/35

60MIN

Win Rate: 37.3%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.05%
Avg Loser: -0.04%
Best: +0.16%
Worst: -0.19%
Trades: 25/39

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 49.3%
Avg Gain: +0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.08%
Avg Loser: -0.09%
Best: +0.31%
Worst: -0.30%
Trades: 33/28

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.08%
Best MFE: +0.32%
Avg Time to MFE: 127 min

On average, VGSH alerts reach +0.08% profit potential within 127 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.03%
Worst MAE: -0.24%
Avg Time to MAE: 23 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.03%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.53:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.53x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 67 alerts, VGSH typically reaches +0.08% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 67
Gap Up % 37.3%
Avg Gap -0.00%
Best Gap +0.07%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical VGSH alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-05-31 09:29:30 $57.82 +0.03% +0.03% +0.06% +0.08% +0.09% +0.10% - +0.02% WIN
2023-12-22 09:28:00 $58.25 -0.01% -0.01% - -0.03% -0.02% +0.02% - +0.02% LOSS
2023-11-28 09:25:00 $57.87 -0.01% -0.01% - +0.03% +0.17% +0.19% -0.02% -0.02% LOSS
2023-11-15 09:27:00 $57.75 +0.00% -0.01% -0.03% -0.04% -0.07% +0.02% - +0.02% LOSS
2023-11-14 09:26:00 $57.79 +0.01% +0.01% -0.01% -0.03% +0.03% +0.07% -0.03% -0.02% WIN
2023-10-18 09:28:00 $57.41 -0.01% -0.02% +0.01% +0.01% -0.03% +0.03% -0.02% -0.02% LOSS
2023-10-05 09:27:00 $57.51 - -0.00% - - - +0.02% -0.02% +0.02% -
2023-08-03 09:29:00 $57.55 +0.01% +0.01% +0.02% +0.06% +0.05% +0.09% - +0.03% WIN
2023-07-28 09:29:00 $57.7 +0.03% +0.03% +0.01% +0.04% +0.03% +0.09% - +0.02% WIN
2023-07-27 09:29:00 $57.71 +0.02% +0.01% -0.01% -0.03% -0.07% +0.03% - +0.02% WIN
2023-07-19 09:25:00 $57.8 +0.07% +0.10% +0.07% +0.03% +0.02% +0.10% +0.07% +0.07% WIN
2023-07-13 09:29:00 $57.87 +0.02% +0.04% +0.02% - +0.07% +0.10% -0.02% +0.02% WIN
2023-07-12 09:29:00 $57.73 +0.03% +0.02% +0.04% +0.07% +0.05% +0.10% - +0.02% WIN
2023-07-07 09:27:00 $57.49 +0.03% +0.05% +0.06% +0.09% +0.03% +0.14% +0.01% +0.02% WIN
2023-06-23 09:25:00 $57.88 +0.01% -0.01% -0.04% -0.06% -0.07% +0.03% -0.02% - WIN
2023-06-21 09:26:00 $57.82 -0.02% -0.02% -0.02% -0.02% +0.03% +0.09% -0.03% -0.02% LOSS
2023-06-16 09:27:00 $57.81 -0.03% -0.03% -0.02% -0.08% +0.02% +0.05% -0.05% -0.02% LOSS
2023-05-19 09:25:00 $58.22 +0.00% -0.03% -0.03% -0.03% +0.03% +0.21% -0.05% +0.02% LOSS
2023-04-28 09:29:00 $58.52 -0.03% -0.08% -0.08% -0.07% +0.02% - -0.03% - LOSS
2023-04-20 09:29:00 $58.35 +0.05% +0.04% +0.05% +0.07% +0.09% +0.09% +0.03% +0.05% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ VGSH Shows Negative Expectancy

With 49.3% win rate and +0.00% average gain, VGSH alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider VGSH for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze VGSH with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for VGSH. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, VGSH historically offers an average upside of +0.08% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 VGSH Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 49.3%, VGSH shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: VGSH shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at +0.00%). This suggests VGSH is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.