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VIR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 12 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-11 → 2025-01-10

⚠️ Small sample size (12 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Vir Biotechnology, Inc. Common Stock BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES) (SIC 2836)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 11, 2019 🔗 www.vir.bio
💰 Market Cap: $1.05B 👥 Employees: 408
Vir Biotechnology Inc is an immunology company focused on combining cutting-edge technologies to treat and prevent serious infectious diseases and other serious conditions, including viral-associated diseases. Through internal development, collaborations, and acquisitions, it has four technology platforms, focused on antibodies, T cells, innate immunity, and small interfering ribonucleic acid, or siRNA. The company's pipeline consists of product candidates targeting hepatitis B, HBV, influenza A, human immunodeficiency virus, HIV, and tuberculosis, or TB. Its revenue sources are collaboration revenue, contract revenue, grant revenue, and license revenue.
📊
12
Total Alerts
🎯
41.7%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-1.76%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+4.22%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -1.46%
Avg Winner: +2.65%
Avg Loser: -2.83%
Best: +6.62%
Worst: -5.28%
Trades: 3/9

15MIN

Win Rate: 16.7%
Avg Gain: -1.47%
Avg Winner: +6.24%
Avg Loser: -3.01%
Best: +9.94%
Worst: -7.06%
Trades: 2/10

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -2.13%
Avg Winner: +2.78%
Avg Loser: -4.58%
Best: +4.26%
Worst: -10.12%
Trades: 4/8

60MIN

Win Rate: 41.7%
Avg Gain: -1.76%
Avg Winner: +2.30%
Avg Loser: -4.66%
Best: +6.33%
Worst: -7.71%
Trades: 5/7

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 8.3%
Avg Gain: -2.78%
Avg Winner: +10.55%
Avg Loser: -3.99%
Best: +10.55%
Worst: -9.54%
Trades: 1/11

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.22%
Best MFE: +14.96%
Avg Time to MFE: 65 min

On average, VIR alerts reach +4.22% profit potential within 65 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.56%
Worst MAE: -8.75%
Avg Time to MAE: 3 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.56%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.7:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.7x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 12 alerts, VIR typically reaches +4.22% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 12
Gap Up % 41.7%
Avg Gap -0.01%
Best Gap +2.96%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How VIR compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
VIR: -1.46% Sector: -0.41% -1.05%
EOD Gain
VIR: -2.78% Sector: +1233.50% -1236.28%
Avg MFE
VIR: +4.22% Sector: +6.69% -2.47%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical VIR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-10 09:27:16 $12.32 +6.62% +9.94% +4.26% +6.33% -1.79% +11.53% +0.89% +2.96% WIN
2025-01-08 09:28:08 $12.57 -5.28% -5.65% +1.23% +0.93% -0.72% +14.96% -8.75% -0.16% LOSS
2024-12-03 09:26:35 $10.05 -4.28% -7.06% -10.12% -7.71% -8.46% -0.40% -0.50% -0.50% LOSS
2023-11-01 09:29:00 $7.93 -0.63% -1.39% -0.50% +0.09% -1.77% +1.32% -1.58% +0.13% LOSS
2023-07-21 09:25:00 $12.98 +1.08% +2.54% +3.24% +1.85% +10.55% +10.63% -0.62% - WIN
2023-07-20 09:29:00 $13.71 -0.66% -2.01% -4.52% -6.38% -7.37% +1.60% -4.01% -0.07% LOSS
2023-02-24 09:29:00 $24.31 -4.36% -5.55% -7.53% -4.85% -5.41% - - -0.45% LOSS
2023-02-21 09:26:00 $28.66 -1.90% -0.38% -3.80% -2.02% -5.83% +1.78% -2.20% +0.98% LOSS
2022-10-04 09:25:00 $21.5 -1.30% -0.62% -1.67% -2.33% -0.05% +1.12% -1.12% +0.05% LOSS
2022-03-30 09:25:00 $26.3 +0.25% -0.82% +2.40% +2.28% -1.48% +4.49% -3.19% +0.38% WIN
2022-01-13 09:25:00 $41.62 -4.34% -4.52% -6.15% -6.44% -9.54% +0.91% +0.91% -2.86% LOSS
2022-01-11 09:25:00 $35.31 -2.75% -2.15% -2.35% -2.90% -1.53% +2.66% +1.39% -0.59% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ VIR Shows Negative Expectancy

With 41.7% win rate and -1.76% average gain, VIR alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider VIR for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze VIR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for VIR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, VIR historically offers an average upside of +4.22% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 VIR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 41.7%, VIR shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests VIR may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: VIR shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -1.76%). This suggests VIR is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.