Latest signal:
VLO Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 44 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-10 → 2025-01-21
⚠️ Small sample size (44 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, VLO alerts reach +1.78% profit potential within 135 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.70%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.53x the typical drawdown.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 44 alerts, VLO typically reaches +1.78% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.4% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
🏭 Sector Comparison: PETROLEUM REFINING
How VLO compares to 11 other tickers in the same sector.
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical VLO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-21 | 09:27:10 | $141.0 | -0.31% | -1.57% | -0.76% | -0.72% | -1.04% | -0.01% | -0.63% | -0.63% | LOSS |
| 2024-03-26 | 09:28:34 | $169.96 | +0.29% | -0.44% | -0.52% | -0.79% | -1.59% | +0.41% | -0.74% | -0.65% | WIN |
| 2024-02-07 | 09:29:14 | $138.5 | +0.08% | +0.17% | -0.23% | -0.90% | +1.94% | +1.95% | -1.08% | -0.14% | WIN |
| 2023-11-29 | 09:25:00 | $126.4 | +0.18% | -0.26% | -0.91% | -1.02% | -1.84% | +0.81% | +0.04% | +0.09% | WIN |
| 2023-11-10 | 09:25:00 | $121.29 | -0.13% | +0.04% | +0.19% | +0.49% | +1.14% | +1.29% | -0.40% | +0.03% | LOSS |
| 2023-10-19 | 09:26:00 | $134.62 | -1.70% | -1.31% | -1.21% | -1.13% | -1.63% | - | - | -0.78% | LOSS |
| 2023-09-21 | 09:27:00 | $146.7 | +3.26% | +3.63% | +1.22% | +0.80% | -0.27% | +3.75% | +0.20% | +1.29% | WIN |
| 2023-04-26 | 09:27:00 | $116.82 | +0.91% | -0.15% | -0.16% | -0.67% | -0.15% | +1.47% | +0.79% | +0.79% | WIN |
| 2023-04-03 | 09:26:00 | $144.2 | -2.17% | -3.20% | -4.21% | -3.61% | -3.93% | - | - | -1.58% | LOSS |
| 2023-02-22 | 09:28:00 | $132.15 | +0.33% | +0.03% | +0.13% | -0.85% | -1.10% | +0.57% | -0.46% | +0.37% | WIN |
| 2023-01-19 | 09:27:00 | $135.0 | -0.00% | -0.11% | -0.01% | +0.13% | +2.57% | +2.87% | -0.78% | -0.24% | LOSS |
| 2023-01-09 | 09:25:00 | $129.5 | -0.34% | +0.15% | +0.60% | +0.67% | -0.71% | +1.54% | -0.99% | +0.12% | LOSS |
| 2022-11-29 | 09:25:00 | $136.01 | +0.66% | +0.73% | +0.16% | +0.28% | -0.60% | +0.99% | -0.53% | -0.01% | WIN |
| 2022-11-11 | 09:25:00 | $134.32 | -0.12% | +0.34% | +0.14% | +0.86% | -0.27% | +1.38% | -0.34% | +0.09% | LOSS |
| 2022-11-07 | 09:25:00 | $129.4 | -0.34% | +0.25% | +0.01% | +1.00% | +1.84% | +2.73% | -0.45% | -0.25% | LOSS |
| 2022-10-28 | 09:25:00 | $129.89 | -1.02% | -0.52% | -0.59% | -2.36% | -3.01% | -0.09% | -1.13% | -1.00% | LOSS |
| 2022-10-24 | 09:25:00 | $128.54 | -1.33% | +0.01% | +0.34% | -0.70% | +0.53% | +1.09% | -1.33% | -0.28% | LOSS |
| 2022-10-10 | 09:25:00 | $114.25 | +0.11% | +0.57% | -0.52% | -0.71% | -2.97% | +1.01% | -0.42% | +0.47% | WIN |
| 2022-09-28 | 09:25:00 | $102.41 | -1.04% | -0.24% | +1.08% | +0.63% | +6.24% | +6.67% | -1.37% | -1.21% | LOSS |
| 2022-09-09 | 09:25:00 | $114.0 | +0.37% | -0.18% | -0.23% | -0.47% | -0.60% | +0.53% | -0.11% | +0.48% | WIN |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ VLO Shows Negative Expectancy
With 47.7% win rate and -0.10% average gain, VLO alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider VLO for short-selling strategies.
📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →Why Analyze VLO with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for VLO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, VLO historically offers an average upside of +1.78% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 VLO Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 47.7%, VLO shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests VLO may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: VLO shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.10%). This suggests VLO is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.