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XMTR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-02 → 2023-03-02

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Xometry, Inc. Class A Common Stock SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC (SIC 7389)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 30, 2021 🔗 www.xometry.com
💰 Market Cap: $3.15B 👥 Employees: 1,088
Xometry Inc is engaged in providing AI-enabled manufacturing equipment. Its buyers include engineers, product designers, procurement and supply chain personnel, inventors, and business owners. The manufacturing processes offered by the company include CNC Machining, Injection Molding, Urethane Casting, 3D Printing, and Die Casting. The company is organized into two segments referred to as the U.S. and the International. The majority of its revenue is derived from the U.S. segment.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-3.25%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.34%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -3.25%
Avg Winner: +0.72%
Avg Loser: -7.22%
Best: +0.92%
Worst: -13.86%
Trades: 2/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -4.74%
Avg Winner: +3.47%
Avg Loser: -7.48%
Best: +3.47%
Worst: -19.34%
Trades: 1/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -6.52%
Avg Winner: +2.22%
Avg Loser: -9.43%
Best: +2.22%
Worst: -22.85%
Trades: 1/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -9.28%
Avg Winner: +3.41%
Avg Loser: -13.51%
Best: +3.41%
Worst: -23.71%
Trades: 1/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -5.36%
Avg Winner: +4.32%
Avg Loser: -8.58%
Best: +4.32%
Worst: -22.72%
Trades: 1/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.34%
Best MFE: +6.02%
Avg Time to MFE: 30 min

On average, XMTR alerts reach +2.34% profit potential within 30 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.87%
Worst MAE: -1.36%
Avg Time to MAE: 2 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.87%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.67:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.67x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, XMTR typically reaches +2.34% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap -0.78%
Best Gap +0.62%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

How XMTR compares to 59 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
XMTR: -3.25% Sector: -0.05% -3.20%
EOD Gain
XMTR: -5.36% Sector: +1758.96% -1764.32%
Avg MFE
XMTR: +2.34% Sector: +2.89% -0.55%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical XMTR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-03-02 09:26:00 $17.6 +0.51% +3.47% +2.22% +3.41% +4.32% +6.02% -1.36% +0.62% WIN
2023-03-01 09:26:00 $23.81 -13.86% -19.34% -22.85% -23.71% -22.72% -0.04% -1.30% -4.03% LOSS
2022-11-10 09:25:00 $43.4 +0.92% -0.29% -3.57% -13.71% -0.65% +3.36% -0.83% +0.28% WIN
2022-02-02 09:25:00 $43.6 -0.57% -2.80% -1.86% -3.10% -2.39% - - - LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ XMTR Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -3.25% average gain, XMTR alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider XMTR for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze XMTR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for XMTR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, XMTR historically offers an average upside of +2.34% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 XMTR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, XMTR shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests XMTR may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: XMTR shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -3.25%). This suggests XMTR is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.