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XPEV Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 738 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

XPeng Inc. American depositary shares, each representing two Class A ordinary shares
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Aug 27, 2020 🔗 www.xiaopeng.com
💰 Market Cap: $17.92B 👥 Employees: 16,631
Founded in 2015, XPeng is a leading Chinese smart electric vehicle company that designs, develops, manufactures, and markets EVs in China. Its products primarily target the growing base of technology-savvy middle-class consumers in the midrange to high-end segment in China's passenger vehicle market. The company sold over 190,000 EVs in 2024, accounting for about 2% of China's passenger new energy vehicle market. It is also a leader in autonomous driving technology.
📊
738
Total Alerts
🎯
46.7%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.07%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.88%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 46.7%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +0.94%
Avg Loser: -1.00%
Best: +10.78%
Worst: -8.19%
Trades: 344/377

15MIN

Win Rate: 45.4%
Avg Gain: -0.19%
Avg Winner: +1.66%
Avg Loser: -1.75%
Best: +15.92%
Worst: -9.13%
Trades: 334/394

30MIN

Win Rate: 45.5%
Avg Gain: -0.14%
Avg Winner: +2.08%
Avg Loser: -2.01%
Best: +20.10%
Worst: -9.41%
Trades: 335/397

60MIN

Win Rate: 42.4%
Avg Gain: -0.24%
Avg Winner: +2.46%
Avg Loser: -2.25%
Best: +22.06%
Worst: -13.62%
Trades: 312/420

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 45.9%
Avg Gain: -0.17%
Avg Winner: +2.84%
Avg Loser: -2.78%
Best: +29.93%
Worst: -14.86%
Trades: 339/392

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.88%
Best MFE: +31.67%
Avg Time to MFE: 93 min

On average, XPEV alerts reach +2.88% profit potential within 93 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.12%
Worst MAE: -10.62%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.12%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.56:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.56x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 738 alerts, XPEV typically reaches +2.88% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 738
Gap Up % 38.6%
Avg Gap -0.09%
Best Gap +6.81%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical XPEV alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:26:58 $16.6 +0.24% -0.48% +0.30% -0.73% +0.36% +1.02% -0.72% -0.06% WIN
2025-02-13 09:28:04 $15.42 +1.46% +1.39% +1.82% +2.01% +3.44% +3.92% - +0.06% WIN
2025-02-12 09:28:52 $15.88 +0.19% +0.06% +0.69% +0.60% +0.94% +1.57% -0.50% -0.25% WIN
2025-02-11 09:25:44 $15.6 +0.38% +0.45% +0.90% +0.48% -0.51% +1.57% -0.83% -0.13% WIN
2025-02-10 09:27:50 $17.21 -0.29% -4.88% -4.31% -2.93% -3.25% +0.41% -0.73% +0.23% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:26:26 $17.56 +0.57% -1.43% -1.14% -3.10% -3.59% +0.80% -0.57% -0.14% WIN
2025-02-06 09:26:26 $17.29 -0.52% -1.39% -0.93% -0.03% -1.10% +0.64% -1.71% -0.06% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:26:07 $16.74 -0.70% -0.24% -1.43% -1.67% -1.14% +0.12% +0.12% -0.66% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:25:01 $16.52 +0.85% +2.81% +2.91% +2.27% +2.85% +4.72% -0.61% +0.12% WIN
2025-02-03 09:27:46 $14.9 +1.28% +4.43% +3.79% +5.83% +5.30% +8.96% -0.94% -0.13% WIN
2025-01-29 09:28:49 $15.24 -1.08% -1.64% -1.41% -1.25% -2.82% +0.20% -0.20% -0.07% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:29:50 $15.13 -1.48% -1.65% -1.07% -0.46% -0.13% +0.36% -2.25% -0.20% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:27:56 $14.98 -0.67% -0.53% +0.20% +1.71% +0.73% +3.07% -1.67% - LOSS
2025-01-24 09:29:57 $14.6 -0.27% -0.89% -0.89% -0.99% +0.55% +1.99% -1.37% -0.21% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:29:34 $14.14 +0.98% -0.25% - -0.32% +0.71% +1.11% -0.21% +0.85% WIN
2025-01-22 09:29:59 $14.82 -0.54% -1.25% -1.86% -1.08% -1.96% +0.34% -1.08% -0.17% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:29:07 $14.91 +0.70% -0.67% -0.40% -0.94% +0.60% +1.34% -1.73% +0.07% WIN
2025-01-17 09:29:57 $13.96 +0.07% +0.29% +0.90% +0.41% +1.22% +1.78% -0.79% +0.11% WIN
2025-01-16 09:29:19 $13.62 +1.03% +2.06% +0.99% +1.95% +1.84% +3.60% -0.15% - WIN
2025-01-15 09:26:15 $13.01 -0.69% -0.88% -0.15% -0.15% +0.31% +1.38% -1.69% -0.08% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ XPEV Shows Negative Expectancy

With 46.7% win rate and -0.07% average gain, XPEV alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider XPEV for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze XPEV with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for XPEV. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, XPEV historically offers an average upside of +2.88% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 XPEV Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 46.7%, XPEV shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests XPEV may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: XPEV shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.07%). This suggests XPEV is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.