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XPOF Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 7 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-04-07 → 2024-12-10

⚠️ Small sample size (7 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jul 23, 2021 🔗 www.xponential.com
💰 Market Cap: $278.9M 👥 Employees: 432
Xponential Fitness Inc is a curator of boutique fitness brands. Its diversified portfolio of brands includes Club Pilates, a Pilates brand in the United States; CycleBar, an indoor cycling brand in the United States; StretchLab, a concept offering one-on-one and group stretching services; Row House, a high-energy, low-impact indoor rowing workout; AKT, a dance-based cardio workout combining toning, interval and circuit training; YogaSix a franchised yoga brand; Pure Barre, a total body workout that uses the ballet barre to perform small isometric movements; Stride, a treadmill-based cardio and strength training concept; Rumble, a boxing-inspired full-body workout; and BFT, a functional training and strength-based program. Its key revenue source is franchise income.
📊
7
Total Alerts
🎯
42.9%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.88%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+3.22%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.88%
Avg Winner: +1.65%
Avg Loser: -2.78%
Best: +3.32%
Worst: -6.70%
Trades: 3/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -2.13%
Avg Winner: +0.86%
Avg Loser: -4.37%
Best: +1.75%
Worst: -10.25%
Trades: 3/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 28.6%
Avg Gain: -3.03%
Avg Winner: +1.16%
Avg Loser: -4.70%
Best: +1.64%
Worst: -13.16%
Trades: 2/5

60MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -3.42%
Avg Winner: +1.10%
Avg Loser: -6.80%
Best: +1.78%
Worst: -13.75%
Trades: 3/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 28.6%
Avg Gain: -5.00%
Avg Winner: +4.77%
Avg Loser: -8.91%
Best: +7.17%
Worst: -22.52%
Trades: 2/5

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.22%
Best MFE: +9.80%
Avg Time to MFE: 105 min

On average, XPOF alerts reach +3.22% profit potential within 105 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.95%
Worst MAE: -3.49%
Avg Time to MAE: 23 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.95%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.65:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 7 alerts, XPOF typically reaches +3.22% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 7
Gap Up % 42.9%
Avg Gap -0.44%
Best Gap +1.48%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-MISCELLANEOUS AMUSEMENT & RECREATION

How XPOF compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
XPOF: -0.88% Sector: +0.00% -0.88%
EOD Gain
XPOF: -5.00% Sector: +7.84% -12.84%
Avg MFE
XPOF: +3.22% Sector: +2.23% +0.99%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical XPOF alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-10 09:27:48 $15.45 +0.03% +0.61% +0.68% -1.75% -5.63% +0.80% +0.03% +0.13% WIN
2024-03-04 09:26:26 $14.0 -2.71% -5.41% -7.57% -9.54% -7.57% +0.43% -1.57% +0.29% LOSS
2023-12-13 09:28:00 $9.9 +1.62% +0.20% -1.41% +0.25% +7.17% +9.80% -2.53% -0.91% WIN
2023-06-28 09:28:00 $18.25 +3.32% +1.75% +1.64% +1.78% -6.14% +5.10% -1.04% +1.48% WIN
2023-06-27 09:29:00 $20.29 -6.70% -10.25% -13.16% -13.75% -22.52% +0.94% -3.20% -2.91% LOSS
2023-02-08 09:26:00 $24.75 -1.41% -0.48% -0.14% -2.18% -2.71% +0.55% -1.82% -0.28% LOSS
2022-04-07 09:25:00 $21.49 -0.28% -1.33% -1.23% +1.26% +2.37% +4.93% -3.49% -0.88% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ XPOF Shows Negative Expectancy

With 42.9% win rate and -0.88% average gain, XPOF alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider XPOF for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze XPOF with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for XPOF. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, XPOF historically offers an average upside of +3.22% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 XPOF Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 42.9%, XPOF shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests XPOF may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: XPOF shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.88%). This suggests XPOF is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.