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AEO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 26 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-11 → 2025-01-13

⚠️ Small sample size (26 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

American Eagle Outfitters RETAIL-FAMILY CLOTHING STORES (SIC 5651)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Apr 29, 1994 🔗 www.aeo-inc.com
💰 Market Cap: $4.09B 👥 Employees: 44,000
American Eagle Outfitters Inc is a specialty retailer. The company is engaged in the retail of apparel and accessories with company stores in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Hong Kong. The Company leases all store premises, regional distribution facilities, some of its office space, and certain information technology and office equipment. American Eagle also has its online business. It operates in two segments: American Eagle and Aerie. The majority of its revenue comes from its primary brand, American Eagle, which offers an assortment of specialty apparel, accessories, and personal care products for women and men. Geographically, it generates the majority of its revenue from the United States.
📊
26
Total Alerts
🎯
53.8%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.16%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+3.63%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 53.8%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +1.29%
Avg Loser: -1.85%
Best: +5.16%
Worst: -4.82%
Trades: 14/12

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.2%
Avg Gain: -0.40%
Avg Winner: +2.33%
Avg Loser: -2.74%
Best: +4.95%
Worst: -8.07%
Trades: 12/14

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +2.94%
Avg Loser: -3.65%
Best: +8.33%
Worst: -8.10%
Trades: 13/11

60MIN

Win Rate: 46.2%
Avg Gain: -0.56%
Avg Winner: +3.44%
Avg Loser: -3.99%
Best: +7.54%
Worst: -9.12%
Trades: 12/14

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 53.8%
Avg Gain: -0.35%
Avg Winner: +3.19%
Avg Loser: -4.49%
Best: +8.55%
Worst: -12.55%
Trades: 14/12

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.63%
Best MFE: +9.45%
Avg Time to MFE: 62 min

On average, AEO alerts reach +3.63% profit potential within 62 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.08%
Worst MAE: -4.14%
Avg Time to MAE: 8 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.08%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.35:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.35x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 26 alerts, AEO typically reaches +3.63% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 26
Gap Up % 42.3%
Avg Gap -0.11%
Best Gap +2.36%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-FAMILY CLOTHING STORES

How AEO compares to 10 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AEO: -0.16% Sector: +0.15% -0.31%
EOD Gain
AEO: -0.35% Sector: +0.90% -1.25%
Avg MFE
AEO: +3.63% Sector: +3.72% -0.09%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AEO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-13 09:26:32 $17.1 -4.82% -8.07% -8.10% -9.12% -9.42% +1.17% +0.53% -0.32% LOSS
2024-12-05 09:29:00 $17.3 +2.28% +2.37% +2.89% +2.08% +1.79% +4.62% -2.08% - WIN
2024-08-29 09:26:50 $20.01 -0.40% -2.32% -1.02% +1.15% +3.85% +7.40% -3.17% -1.55% LOSS
2024-07-09 09:28:28 $19.75 +0.25% +0.66% +0.46% +1.14% +2.13% +3.59% +0.03% +0.10% WIN
2024-03-07 09:27:23 $26.3 -3.84% -2.56% -3.12% -6.27% -12.55% +1.37% +1.03% -0.68% LOSS
2023-11-21 09:29:00 $16.52 +1.45% -1.66% -2.00% -0.76% +0.67% +2.12% -3.63% -1.63% WIN
2023-09-07 09:29:00 $17.43 -0.11% -3.10% -2.55% -2.70% -3.79% +0.57% -1.15% - LOSS
2023-08-03 09:27:00 $15.35 -4.63% -5.08% -5.50% -5.83% -3.19% +0.65% +0.07% -0.07% LOSS
2023-05-25 09:25:00 $10.38 -3.32% +1.96% +0.67% -3.47% +2.41% +5.30% -4.14% -2.79% LOSS
2023-05-24 09:27:00 $12.24 -0.25% -2.12% -2.94% -3.06% -1.39% +2.12% -0.49% +1.31% LOSS
2023-03-02 09:28:00 $14.0 +5.16% +2.63% +3.96% +3.82% +2.14% +7.14% - +2.36% WIN
2022-11-22 09:25:00 $14.15 -1.27% +4.95% +5.37% +6.40% +8.55% +9.26% -1.63% -0.99% LOSS
2022-09-08 09:25:00 $10.15 +0.01% +0.94% +3.35% +3.74% +4.24% +6.65% -2.07% -0.74% WIN
2022-08-25 09:25:00 $11.74 +1.53% +2.30% +4.51% +7.54% +4.34% +8.26% - +1.36% WIN
2022-08-09 09:25:00 $12.57 -0.04% -2.47% -4.06% -5.17% -8.59% +0.16% -0.84% -0.56% LOSS
2022-07-26 09:25:00 $10.9 +0.37% +1.28% +1.10% +1.05% +0.83% +2.84% +0.28% +0.83% WIN
2022-05-31 09:25:00 $12.55 -1.43% -5.10% -5.10% -2.95% -3.51% - -0.40% -1.75% LOSS
2022-05-27 09:25:00 $12.49 +1.12% +4.64% +8.33% +6.97% +4.80% +9.45% -0.48% +1.12% WIN
2022-05-26 09:25:00 $13.87 +1.08% +2.49% +3.14% +2.23% +1.08% +3.28% +0.07% +0.36% WIN
2022-05-24 09:25:00 $12.15 +0.99% -0.04% - -1.98% -0.33% +1.73% -0.82% +0.08% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ AEO Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 53.8% win rate, AEO has -0.16% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making AEO profitable.

🔧 Fix AEO Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze AEO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AEO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AEO historically offers an average upside of +3.63% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AEO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 53.8%, AEO shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.85%) outweigh average wins (+1.29%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: AEO shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.16%). This suggests AEO is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.