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ALK Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 18 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-15 → 2025-01-23

⚠️ Small sample size (18 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 01, 1972 🔗 www.alaskaair.com
💰 Market Cap: $5.88B 👥 Employees: 31,221
Alaska Air Group Inc operates two airlines, Alaska and Horizon in three operating segments. The Alaska Airlines segment includes scheduled air transportation on Alaska's Boeing and Airbus jet aircraft for passengers and cargo throughout the U.S., and in parts of Mexico, and Costa Rica. The Regional segment includes Horizon's and other third-party carriers' scheduled air transportation for passengers across a shorter distance network within the U.S. and Canada under capacity purchase agreements (CPA). The Hawaiian Airlines segment includes scheduled air transportation on Hawaiian's Boeing and Airbus aircraft for passengers and cargo. It earns revenues from Passenger tickets, including ticket breakage and net of taxes and fees, Passenger ancillary and Mileage Plan passenger revenue.
📊
18
Total Alerts
🎯
66.7%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+0.36%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+2.02%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 38.9%
Avg Gain: -0.47%
Avg Winner: +0.61%
Avg Loser: -1.16%
Best: +1.28%
Worst: -3.00%
Trades: 7/11

15MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: -0.34%
Avg Winner: +0.95%
Avg Loser: -1.96%
Best: +2.50%
Worst: -6.09%
Trades: 10/8

30MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +1.28%
Avg Loser: -1.69%
Best: +2.03%
Worst: -5.74%
Trades: 10/8

60MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.36%
Avg Winner: +1.70%
Avg Loser: -2.30%
Best: +2.88%
Worst: -6.27%
Trades: 12/6

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 61.1%
Avg Gain: +0.12%
Avg Winner: +1.57%
Avg Loser: -2.16%
Best: +3.17%
Worst: -5.13%
Trades: 11/7

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.02%
Best MFE: +4.21%
Avg Time to MFE: 111 min

On average, ALK alerts reach +2.02% profit potential within 111 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.06%
Worst MAE: -5.58%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.06%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.91:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 18 alerts, ALK typically reaches +2.02% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 18
Gap Up % 38.9%
Avg Gap -0.12%
Best Gap +1.51%

🏭 Sector Comparison: AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED

How ALK compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ALK: -0.47% Sector: -0.01% -0.47%
EOD Gain
ALK: +0.12% Sector: -0.10% +0.23%
Avg MFE
ALK: +2.02% Sector: +1.90% +0.11%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ALK alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-23 09:27:18 $69.3 +0.36% +0.85% +1.42% +2.58% -0.65% +3.46% -1.30% +0.66% WIN
2025-01-10 09:28:24 $68.43 -2.27% -0.07% -0.17% -0.51% -0.37% +0.98% -2.81% +0.67% LOSS
2024-12-10 09:26:29 $61.32 -0.41% -1.66% +0.63% +2.88% -0.05% +4.21% -0.77% +0.21% LOSS
2024-02-12 09:25:14 $36.83 +0.14% +0.76% +1.55% +1.17% +1.36% +2.28% -0.92% -0.16% WIN
2023-12-05 09:27:00 $34.49 +0.22% +0.23% +2.03% +1.20% +3.13% +4.12% -0.58% -0.55% WIN
2023-12-04 09:28:00 $33.89 -3.00% -1.56% -2.43% -1.20% +0.56% +1.14% -5.58% -0.65% LOSS
2023-07-25 09:26:00 $50.7 -2.68% -6.09% -5.74% -6.27% -4.97% -0.20% -0.20% -0.67% LOSS
2022-11-01 09:25:00 $45.28 -0.38% -0.64% -0.77% -1.21% -1.68% -0.18% -0.51% -0.51% LOSS
2022-08-12 09:25:00 $46.23 +0.82% +1.85% +1.42% +0.64% +2.40% +2.42% +0.42% +1.25% WIN
2022-07-29 09:25:00 $43.92 -0.28% +0.25% +0.16% +0.93% +0.93% +1.34% -0.75% -0.52% LOSS
2022-05-19 09:25:00 $45.92 +0.75% +2.03% +1.59% +1.52% +1.83% +3.88% -0.14% +0.07% WIN
2022-04-21 09:25:00 $61.96 -1.40% -2.76% -1.90% -2.23% -5.13% - -1.23% -1.55% LOSS
2022-04-13 09:25:00 $55.5 +0.72% +0.38% -0.18% +1.64% +1.33% +2.70% -0.83% +1.51% WIN
2022-03-30 09:25:00 $57.98 -0.03% +0.60% +0.57% +0.81% +0.05% +1.07% -1.02% -0.22% LOSS
2022-03-21 09:25:00 $54.98 -1.24% -1.86% -2.29% -2.38% -2.26% +0.02% +0.02% -0.80% LOSS
2022-03-16 09:25:00 $53.01 -0.63% +0.02% +1.47% +2.74% +3.17% +3.47% -1.19% -1.19% LOSS
2022-03-14 09:25:00 $49.52 -0.50% -1.01% -0.05% +2.32% +0.16% +2.60% -1.43% -0.04% LOSS
2022-02-15 09:25:00 $58.51 +1.28% +2.50% +1.95% +1.91% +2.39% +2.97% -0.19% +0.34% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 66.7% Baseline on ALK

The 66.7% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push ALK's performance to 75%+.

Optimize ALK Strategy →

Why Analyze ALK with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ALK. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ALK historically offers an average upside of +2.02% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ALK Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, ALK shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show ALK performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.36%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.