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BTBD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-24 → 2022-06-17

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

BT Brands, Inc. Common Stock RETAIL-EATING PLACES (SIC 5812)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 18, 2020 🔗 www.itsburgertime.com
💰 Market Cap: $9.8M 👥 Employees: 188
BT Brands Inc operates and owns a fast-food restaurant called Burger Time. The company also operates in Minnesota as a franchisee of Dairy Queen. It offers a variety of burgers and other affordably priced foods such as chicken sandwiches, pulled pork sandwiches, chicken chunks, side dishes, and soft drinks.
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
40.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.63%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+8.45%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.63%
Avg Winner: +4.68%
Avg Loser: -4.17%
Best: +7.27%
Worst: -7.65%
Trades: 2/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +13.52%
Avg Loser: -9.40%
Best: +17.27%
Worst: -13.64%
Trades: 2/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -8.22%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -8.22%
Best: -0.47%
Worst: -20.54%
Trades: 0/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -9.73%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -9.73%
Best: -0.93%
Worst: -17.78%
Trades: 0/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -5.51%
Avg Winner: +7.73%
Avg Loser: -11.76%
Best: +7.73%
Worst: -20.92%
Trades: 1/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +8.45%
Best MFE: +19.97%
Avg Time to MFE: 71 min

On average, BTBD alerts reach +8.45% profit potential within 71 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.01%
Worst MAE: -2.33%
Avg Time to MAE: 1 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.01%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

8.33:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 8.33x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, BTBD typically reaches +8.45% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 60.0%
Avg Gap +2.17%
Best Gap +10.91%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-EATING PLACES

How BTBD compares to 27 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BTBD: -2.61% Sector: -0.12% -2.48%
EOD Gain
BTBD: -8.82% Sector: +6.34% -15.16%
Avg MFE
BTBD: +5.56% Sector: +2.99% +2.57%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BTBD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2022-06-17 09:25:00 $2.2 +7.27% +17.27% - - +7.73% +19.97% - +10.91% WIN
2022-03-21 09:25:00 $2.15 +2.09% +9.77% -0.47% -0.93% - +13.95% -2.33% +5.12% WIN
2022-01-26 09:25:00 $3.0 -3.30% -6.67% -4.67% -7.67% -9.33% +2.66% -0.67% -4.00% LOSS
2022-01-25 09:25:00 $3.19 -1.57% -7.88% -7.21% -12.54% -5.02% +4.39% -1.57% +1.88% LOSS
2022-01-24 09:25:00 $3.92 -7.65% -13.64% -20.54% -17.78% -20.92% +1.25% -0.51% -3.06% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BTBD Shows Negative Expectancy

With 40.0% win rate and -0.63% average gain, BTBD alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider BTBD for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze BTBD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BTBD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BTBD historically offers an average upside of +8.45% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BTBD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 40.0%, BTBD shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests BTBD may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BTBD shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.63%). This suggests BTBD is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.