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CMG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 40 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-06-26 → 2025-02-11

⚠️ Small sample size (40 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. RETAIL-EATING PLACES (SIC 5812)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jan 26, 2006 🔗 www.chipotle.com
💰 Market Cap: $54.04B 👥 Employees: 130,504
Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual chain restaurant in the United States, with systemwide sales of $11.3 billion in 2024. The Mexican food concept is almost exclusively company-owned, with just a handful of franchise stores operated through a master franchise relationship with Alshaya Group in the Middle East. It had close to 4,000 stores at the end of September 2025, heavily indexed to the United States, although it maintains a small presence in Canada, the UK, France, and Germany. Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and beverages, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. The company generates its revenue entirely from restaurant sales and delivery fees.
📊
40
Total Alerts
🎯
52.5%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.37%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.89%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 47.5%
Avg Gain: +0.09%
Avg Winner: +0.81%
Avg Loser: -0.61%
Best: +2.84%
Worst: -2.29%
Trades: 19/19

15MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.15%
Avg Winner: +1.31%
Avg Loser: -1.12%
Best: +4.50%
Worst: -3.99%
Trades: 16/24

30MIN

Win Rate: 32.5%
Avg Gain: -0.15%
Avg Winner: +1.59%
Avg Loser: -0.99%
Best: +6.12%
Worst: -3.93%
Trades: 13/27

60MIN

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: -0.11%
Avg Winner: +1.70%
Avg Loser: -1.20%
Best: +5.83%
Worst: -3.70%
Trades: 15/25

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 52.5%
Avg Gain: +0.37%
Avg Winner: +2.35%
Avg Loser: -1.83%
Best: +8.98%
Worst: -5.75%
Trades: 21/19

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.89%
Best MFE: +10.15%
Avg Time to MFE: 155 min

On average, CMG alerts reach +1.89% profit potential within 155 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.88%
Worst MAE: -5.60%
Avg Time to MAE: 15 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.88%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.15:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.15x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 40 alerts, CMG typically reaches +1.89% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 40
Gap Up % 45.0%
Avg Gap +0.02%
Best Gap +0.90%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-EATING PLACES

How CMG compares to 27 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CMG: +0.09% Sector: -0.12% +0.22%
EOD Gain
CMG: +0.37% Sector: +6.34% -5.97%
Avg MFE
CMG: +1.89% Sector: +2.99% -1.10%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CMG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-11 09:27:42 $57.75 +0.47% -0.43% -0.80% -1.27% -2.72% +0.52% -0.94% -0.45% WIN
2025-02-05 09:25:00 $55.9 +0.03% +1.72% +0.44% +3.51% +2.88% +4.29% -0.61% +0.21% WIN
2025-02-04 09:27:07 $58.6 -0.07% +0.36% +0.46% -0.41% +0.72% +1.09% -0.55% -0.32% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:25:00 $56.36 +1.01% +1.70% +0.73% +1.99% +3.55% +3.92% -0.04% - WIN
2025-01-24 09:29:50 $57.22 - -0.52% -1.09% -0.77% -0.91% +0.19% -0.44% +0.17% -
2025-01-23 09:28:45 $55.73 +0.72% +0.45% +0.97% +0.78% +3.28% +3.66% -0.41% -0.05% WIN
2025-01-21 09:28:33 $57.75 -0.35% -1.49% -2.10% -2.04% -2.68% +0.16% -0.35% -0.04% LOSS
2024-12-05 09:25:40 $63.91 -0.27% -0.47% -0.33% +0.29% +2.05% +2.36% -0.63% - LOSS
2024-12-04 09:28:39 $62.75 +1.47% +1.87% +1.12% +1.29% +1.82% +2.22% -0.40% +0.38% WIN
2024-11-12 09:25:01 $59.14 +0.25% +2.01% +2.43% +1.80% +2.28% +2.77% +0.05% +0.25% WIN
2024-11-11 09:26:55 $59.0 +0.10% -0.71% -1.03% -0.82% +0.46% +0.64% -1.17% -0.03% WIN
2024-11-06 09:27:19 $57.34 +1.13% +0.79% -0.16% +0.67% +0.61% +1.60% -0.26% +0.63% WIN
2024-11-01 09:27:16 $56.02 +1.00% +1.87% +2.41% +2.78% +4.59% +5.25% -0.04% +0.57% WIN
2024-10-30 09:28:53 $56.85 +1.40% -0.86% -0.47% -0.24% -1.97% +2.02% -1.53% +0.90% WIN
2024-10-29 09:27:47 $60.87 -1.15% -1.10% -0.57% -0.84% -0.62% - - -0.18% LOSS
2024-09-12 09:25:00 $55.95 -0.11% -0.21% -0.50% +0.29% +0.71% +0.95% -0.71% -0.04% LOSS
2024-08-28 09:27:00 $56.55 -0.10% -1.23% -1.28% -1.15% -1.38% +0.76% -0.32% +0.04% LOSS
2024-08-16 09:27:34 $53.55 -0.17% -0.77% -0.24% -0.64% -2.02% +0.28% -0.30% +0.07% LOSS
2024-08-15 09:27:51 $52.09 -0.44% -0.58% +0.04% +0.17% +3.61% +4.28% -0.98% -0.58% LOSS
2024-08-14 09:26:57 $52.3 -0.50% -1.19% +0.24% -1.03% -1.24% +0.44% -1.68% -0.54% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 52.5% Baseline on CMG

The 52.5% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push CMG's performance to 75%+.

Optimize CMG Strategy →

Why Analyze CMG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CMG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CMG historically offers an average upside of +1.89% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CMG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 52.5%, CMG shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show CMG performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.37%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.