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EL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 58 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-04 β†’ 2025-02-04

⚠️ Small sample size (58 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏒 Company Profile

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A PERFUMES, COSMETICS & OTHER TOILET PREPARATIONS (SIC 2844)
πŸ“ NYSE πŸ“… IPO: Nov 17, 1995 πŸ”— www.elcompanies.com
πŸ’° Market Cap: $42.41B πŸ‘₯ Employees: 57,000
EstΓ©e Lauder is a leader in the global prestige beauty market, participating across skin care (49% of fiscal 2025 sales), makeup (29%), fragrance (17%), and hair care and others (5%). Top selling brands include EstΓ©e Lauder, Clinique, M.A.C, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda, Bobbi Brown, and Origins. The firm operates in more than 150 countries, generating 31% of revenue from the Americas, 37% from Europe, the Middle East and Africa (including travel retail), and 32% from Asia-Pacific. EstΓ©e Lauder sells its products through department stores, travel retail, specialty multibrand beauty stores, brand-dedicated freestanding stores, e-commerce, salons/spas, and perfumeries.
πŸ“Š
58
Total Alerts
🎯
48.3%
Win Rate (EOD)
πŸ’°
-0.47%
Avg Gain (EOD)
πŸš€
+1.92%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

πŸ“ˆ Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 43.1%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +0.85%
Avg Loser: -0.93%
Best: +3.63%
Worst: -3.75%
Trades: 25/33

15MIN

Win Rate: 43.1%
Avg Gain: -0.20%
Avg Winner: +1.31%
Avg Loser: -1.34%
Best: +7.25%
Worst: -7.23%
Trades: 25/33

30MIN

Win Rate: 39.7%
Avg Gain: -0.12%
Avg Winner: +1.95%
Avg Loser: -1.49%
Best: +7.91%
Worst: -5.68%
Trades: 23/35

60MIN

Win Rate: 43.1%
Avg Gain: -0.18%
Avg Winner: +1.98%
Avg Loser: -1.82%
Best: +8.80%
Worst: -13.61%
Trades: 25/33

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.3%
Avg Gain: -0.47%
Avg Winner: +1.85%
Avg Loser: -2.63%
Best: +8.45%
Worst: -10.95%
Trades: 28/30

πŸš€ Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

πŸ“ˆ MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.92%
Best MFE: +11.31%
Avg Time to MFE: 107 min

On average, EL alerts reach +1.92% profit potential within 107 minutes.

πŸ“‰ MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.89%
Worst MAE: -5.43%
Avg Time to MAE: 7 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.89%.

βš–οΈ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.16:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.16x the typical drawdown.

πŸ’‘ Trading Insight: Based on 58 alerts, EL typically reaches +1.92% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.5% to capture most of the move.

πŸŒ… Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 β†’ 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 58
Gap Up % 41.4%
Avg Gap -0.07%
Best Gap +1.90%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PERFUMES, COSMETICS & OTHER TOILET PREPARATIONS

How EL compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
EL: -0.16% Sector: -0.23% +0.07%
EOD Gain
EL: -0.47% Sector: +353.74% -354.21%
Avg MFE
EL: +1.92% Sector: +2.47% -0.56%

πŸ“‹ Last 20 Alerts

Historical EL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-04 09:25:15 $78.01 -2.94% -7.23% -5.52% -13.61% -10.95% - -0.65% -1.94% LOSS
2025-01-29 09:26:24 $82.5 +1.05% -0.33% -1.45% -1.08% -0.27% +1.05% +0.44% +0.73% WIN
2024-12-03 09:26:53 $75.29 +0.56% -0.41% +0.88% +0.62% +2.91% +3.41% -0.65% +0.20% WIN
2024-12-02 09:26:33 $72.47 -0.27% -0.55% -0.43% +0.87% +4.84% +4.97% -1.26% +0.06% LOSS
2024-11-27 09:26:57 $73.88 +1.10% +1.92% +1.92% +2.40% +0.11% +3.44% -0.45% +0.16% WIN
2024-11-22 09:28:19 $66.45 +0.67% +1.57% +2.39% +2.84% +5.24% +5.73% -0.03% +0.20% WIN
2024-11-01 09:29:15 $68.03 +0.72% +0.62% -0.11% +0.93% -2.13% +1.34% -1.12% -0.01% WIN
2024-10-31 09:28:59 $67.0 -3.75% +0.67% +3.70% +5.69% +2.90% +8.36% -5.43% -1.64% LOSS
2024-10-25 09:28:53 $88.7 -0.11% -0.04% -1.21% -0.89% -1.63% +0.32% -0.20% +0.15% LOSS
2024-09-26 09:28:51 $98.13 +0.84% +1.96% +1.21% +1.66% +2.70% +3.79% -0.67% +0.29% WIN
2024-09-04 09:28:28 $92.0 +0.98% +0.14% +0.54% +0.32% +0.45% +1.52% -0.08% +0.01% WIN
2024-09-03 09:26:30 $90.9 +0.14% +0.84% +1.63% +0.84% +1.79% +2.37% -0.49% -0.19% WIN
2024-08-23 09:27:21 $91.93 +0.24% +0.61% +1.08% +2.92% +1.93% +3.53% -0.38% -0.05% WIN
2024-08-22 09:26:17 $94.93 -1.16% -1.03% -1.96% -1.45% -3.68% +1.13% +0.34% +1.08% LOSS
2024-08-19 09:28:29 $98.0 -3.57% -4.71% -3.95% -2.93% -5.26% -0.40% -4.21% -2.96% LOSS
2024-08-07 09:27:03 $94.0 +0.27% -0.18% +0.67% -0.37% -2.59% +0.86% -0.32% +0.60% WIN
2024-07-05 09:27:40 $106.32 +0.08% +0.66% -0.03% -0.15% +0.03% +1.18% -0.23% +0.40% WIN
2024-06-21 09:26:21 $112.69 +0.93% +1.20% +1.10% +1.20% +1.03% +1.51% +0.20% +1.00% WIN
2024-05-24 09:26:33 $127.0 -0.20% -0.67% -0.28% -0.26% -0.74% +0.21% -0.76% -0.54% LOSS
2024-05-08 09:25:23 $128.5 -0.40% -0.87% -1.08% -0.65% +0.80% +0.89% -1.47% +0.14% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ EL Shows Negative Expectancy

With 48.3% win rate and -0.47% average gain, EL alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider EL for short-selling strategies.

πŸ“‰ Turn Negative Expectancy Positive β†’

Why Analyze EL with FILTRIX?

πŸ›‘οΈ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for EL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

πŸ’° Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, EL historically offers an average upside of +1.92% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

πŸ“Š EL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.3%, EL shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests EL may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: EL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.47%). This suggests EL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.