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Latest signal:

DG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 54 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-01 → 2025-01-10

⚠️ Small sample size (54 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Dollar General Corp. RETAIL-VARIETY STORES (SIC 5331)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Nov 13, 2009 🔗 www.dollargeneral.com
💰 Market Cap: $32.34B 👥 Employees: 170,000
Since its beginning in 1939, Dollar General has grown to become the largest dollar store operator in the United States, with more than 20,000 small-box discount stores across 48 states. The firm generated $40 billion in fiscal 2024 sales. The retailer maintains a heavy concentration of stores in rural and low-income markets underserved by big-box retailers. It's 11,000 stock-keeping units, including 2,000 priced at $1 or less, span consumables (82% of sales), seasonal items (10%), home products (5%), and apparel (3%). More than 20% of sales are derived from private label.
📊
54
Total Alerts
🎯
55.6%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.43%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.58%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: +0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.93%
Avg Loser: -0.73%
Best: +3.71%
Worst: -2.25%
Trades: 24/30

15MIN

Win Rate: 42.6%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +1.06%
Avg Loser: -1.18%
Best: +2.68%
Worst: -5.03%
Trades: 23/31

30MIN

Win Rate: 51.9%
Avg Gain: -0.26%
Avg Winner: +0.94%
Avg Loser: -1.55%
Best: +3.44%
Worst: -4.61%
Trades: 28/26

60MIN

Win Rate: 51.9%
Avg Gain: -0.62%
Avg Winner: +0.91%
Avg Loser: -2.26%
Best: +3.47%
Worst: -8.45%
Trades: 28/26

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: -0.43%
Avg Winner: +1.52%
Avg Loser: -2.87%
Best: +7.06%
Worst: -10.03%
Trades: 30/24

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.58%
Best MFE: +7.54%
Avg Time to MFE: 122 min

On average, DG alerts reach +1.58% profit potential within 122 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.62%
Worst MAE: -3.26%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.62%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.55:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.55x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 54 alerts, DG typically reaches +1.58% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 54
Gap Up % 53.7%
Avg Gap +0.07%
Best Gap +2.94%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-VARIETY STORES

How DG compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
DG: +0.00% Sector: +0.00% -0.00%
EOD Gain
DG: -0.43% Sector: -7.17% +6.74%
Avg MFE
DG: +1.58% Sector: +1.47% +0.12%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical DG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-10 09:26:50 $71.01 +0.04% +0.70% +0.80% +0.47% +0.49% +1.21% -0.32% +0.25% WIN
2024-12-23 09:28:01 $75.99 -1.28% -2.38% -1.71% -2.07% -1.80% -0.28% -0.74% -0.57% LOSS
2024-12-05 09:28:28 $80.3 -2.25% -2.07% -4.12% -5.52% -0.87% +0.81% +0.25% -0.17% LOSS
2024-11-21 09:25:05 $73.44 +0.04% +1.05% +0.91% +0.18% +0.65% +1.35% -0.29% +0.04% WIN
2024-11-20 09:26:23 $76.14 -2.10% -3.24% -3.60% -3.89% -3.77% +0.41% -0.97% -0.51% LOSS
2024-10-11 09:25:47 $82.7 -0.70% -0.21% -0.51% -0.86% -0.25% +0.24% -0.79% -0.24% LOSS
2024-09-30 09:29:56 $86.71 -1.57% -2.47% -2.15% -2.78% -2.47% +0.02% -0.45% +0.02% LOSS
2024-09-06 09:28:43 $81.33 -0.18% +0.73% +0.10% +1.36% +1.54% +2.62% -1.02% -0.36% LOSS
2024-09-04 09:25:31 $81.65 +0.62% -2.13% -0.04% +0.27% -0.70% +1.02% -2.80% +0.10% WIN
2024-08-30 09:27:20 $85.1 +0.47% +1.59% +1.01% +1.19% -2.50% +2.68% -0.99% -0.82% WIN
2024-08-29 09:28:22 $91.63 +3.71% +1.50% +1.14% -2.08% -8.29% +5.86% -0.17% +0.62% WIN
2024-05-30 09:27:04 $142.2 -1.22% -1.43% +1.13% -4.74% -10.03% +2.32% -0.66% +1.19% LOSS
2024-03-14 09:26:55 $165.4 -0.63% -2.21% -3.65% -8.32% -9.27% +1.61% -0.48% +0.44% LOSS
2024-03-13 09:27:24 $154.0 +2.75% +2.01% +1.79% +1.18% +2.71% +3.08% - +0.64% WIN
2023-12-07 09:25:00 $138.5 +0.79% -1.04% -3.16% -1.84% -4.48% +0.94% -0.21% +0.49% WIN
2023-11-24 09:28:00 $125.1 -0.25% -0.05% +0.16% +0.48% +0.30% +0.86% -0.60% -0.31% LOSS
2023-10-16 09:26:00 $112.07 -0.74% -1.25% +0.24% +0.39% +1.34% +2.92% -1.35% -0.74% LOSS
2023-10-13 09:25:00 $109.94 +0.10% -0.28% -0.02% +0.58% +1.11% +2.22% -1.09% +1.06% WIN
2023-09-20 09:25:00 $113.7 +0.53% -0.11% -1.19% -0.99% +1.72% +2.59% -1.50% +0.18% WIN
2023-09-07 09:29:00 $126.2 +1.12% +0.57% +0.51% -0.90% -1.97% +1.22% +0.21% +0.34% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ DG Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 55.6% win rate, DG has -0.43% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making DG profitable.

🔧 Fix DG Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze DG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for DG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, DG historically offers an average upside of +1.58% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 DG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 55.6%, DG shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-2.87%) outweigh average wins (+1.52%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: DG shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.43%). This suggests DG is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.