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DLTR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 35 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-25 → 2025-01-06

⚠️ Small sample size (35 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Mar 06, 1995 🔗 www.dollartree.com
💰 Market Cap: $25.64B 👥 Employees: 214,710
Founded in 1986, Dollar Tree operates almost 9,000 small-box discount stores across the United States and Canada, offering roughly 85% of its merchandise under $2. The chain targets value-conscious suburban and urban shoppers with a mix of consumables (49% of sales), variety (45%), and seasonal goods (6%). In fiscal 2024, Dollar Tree generated over $17 billion in sales, through its multi-price strategy, higher-margin discretionary assortments, and private-label products that account for nearly one-third of sales.
📊
35
Total Alerts
🎯
54.3%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.18%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.36%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 54.3%
Avg Gain: +0.18%
Avg Winner: +1.11%
Avg Loser: -0.93%
Best: +3.85%
Worst: -4.09%
Trades: 19/16

15MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +2.10%
Avg Loser: -1.57%
Best: +6.47%
Worst: -8.24%
Trades: 14/21

30MIN

Win Rate: 37.1%
Avg Gain: -0.47%
Avg Winner: +1.64%
Avg Loser: -1.72%
Best: +5.94%
Worst: -7.51%
Trades: 13/22

60MIN

Win Rate: 34.3%
Avg Gain: -0.44%
Avg Winner: +1.94%
Avg Loser: -1.68%
Best: +4.21%
Worst: -8.04%
Trades: 12/23

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 51.4%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +2.22%
Avg Loser: -2.61%
Best: +8.36%
Worst: -10.82%
Trades: 18/16

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.36%
Best MFE: +8.61%
Avg Time to MFE: 113 min

On average, DLTR alerts reach +2.36% profit potential within 113 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.85%
Worst MAE: -5.18%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.85%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.78:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.78x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 35 alerts, DLTR typically reaches +2.36% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 35
Gap Up % 48.6%
Avg Gap +0.10%
Best Gap +3.56%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-VARIETY STORES

How DLTR compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
DLTR: +0.18% Sector: +0.00% +0.17%
EOD Gain
DLTR: -0.05% Sector: -7.17% +7.11%
Avg MFE
DLTR: +2.36% Sector: +1.47% +0.89%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical DLTR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-06 09:29:42 $74.1 +1.86% +2.31% +1.61% +2.47% +3.39% +4.35% +0.21% +0.46% WIN
2024-12-04 09:25:08 $73.41 +0.14% +0.62% +0.53% +0.46% +0.57% +4.17% -0.01% +3.56% WIN
2024-11-26 09:28:03 $69.16 -1.11% -1.14% -1.32% -1.58% -0.06% +0.33% -1.98% -0.16% LOSS
2024-11-01 09:26:41 $64.01 +1.42% +0.69% +1.46% +2.53% +4.05% +4.25% -0.70% +1.17% WIN
2024-10-17 09:29:42 $68.14 -0.25% -0.68% -0.21% -1.01% -0.41% +0.43% -0.13% -0.13% LOSS
2024-10-04 09:27:15 $69.8 +1.26% +1.49% +0.10% +1.00% +1.58% +2.61% -0.01% +0.60% WIN
2024-09-20 09:27:03 $73.61 -0.60% -1.90% -2.61% -2.08% -2.55% +0.12% -0.35% +0.11% LOSS
2024-09-12 09:26:55 $67.24 +0.15% +2.20% +0.98% +2.62% +0.97% +4.16% -1.13% -1.13% WIN
2024-09-11 09:25:44 $65.39 +0.47% +1.87% +2.06% +1.25% +1.82% +3.03% -0.63% +0.17% WIN
2024-09-05 09:26:48 $63.19 +1.03% -0.30% -1.49% -0.02% +8.36% +8.61% -1.65% -0.16% WIN
2024-09-04 09:27:30 $71.27 -0.32% -8.24% -7.51% -8.04% -10.82% +3.13% +0.81% +2.13% LOSS
2024-08-29 09:27:30 $85.56 +3.00% +2.40% +2.84% +2.58% -0.90% +3.96% -0.15% +0.60% WIN
2024-07-15 09:25:26 $107.32 -0.93% -0.97% -2.47% -2.08% -3.25% -0.19% -0.20% -0.45% LOSS
2024-06-27 09:25:29 $103.69 -0.22% +0.42% +0.55% +1.55% +1.47% +2.50% -0.63% -0.23% LOSS
2024-06-05 09:26:51 $118.31 +2.10% +2.64% +0.08% -3.02% -3.32% +3.05% -0.62% -0.27% WIN
2024-04-12 09:26:24 $130.25 -0.76% -0.58% -0.88% -1.45% -3.88% -0.48% -1.06% -0.84% LOSS
2024-04-09 09:29:04 $129.23 -0.36% -0.77% -1.42% -1.26% -1.47% -0.23% -1.36% -0.94% LOSS
2024-04-05 09:26:53 $130.69 -0.37% -0.94% -0.26% -0.92% +0.02% +0.64% -1.44% -0.71% LOSS
2024-04-04 09:26:28 $134.19 +0.34% -0.12% +0.65% +0.66% -3.32% +1.30% -0.41% +0.30% WIN
2024-03-20 09:29:47 $127.92 +0.12% -0.09% -0.52% -0.51% +0.14% +0.69% -0.04% -0.04% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 54.3% Baseline on DLTR

The 54.3% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push DLTR's performance to 75%+.

Optimize DLTR Strategy →

Why Analyze DLTR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for DLTR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, DLTR historically offers an average upside of +2.36% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 DLTR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 54.3%, DLTR shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show DLTR performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.18%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.