FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →
Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$ELF

Trade-Ideas alerts 48.1% at EOD n=27 2023-02-02 → 2026-08-06

⚠ SMALL SAMPLE · 27 alerts only. Statistics may have high variance — interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Sep 22, 2016 🔗 www.elfcosmetics.com
💰 Market Cap: $6.18B 👥 Employees: 849
e.l.f. Beauty Inc is a multi-brand beauty company that offers inclusive, accessible, clean, vegan, and cruelty-free cosmetics and skin care products. The Company's mission is to make beauty accessible to every eye, lip, face, and skin concern. The company offers cosmetic accessories for women, which include eyeliner, mascara, false eyelashes, lipstick, foundation for the face, moisturizer, cleanser, and other tools through its stores and e-commerce channels.
Total alerts
27
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · EOD
48.1%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · EOD
-0.92%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+3.57%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading ELF on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 29.6%
Avg Gain: -0.41%
Avg Winner: +2.14%
Avg Loser: -1.48%
Best: +6.26%
Worst: -5.85%
Trades: 8/19

15MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -0.41%
Avg Winner: +2.06%
Avg Loser: -2.38%
Best: +4.72%
Worst: -8.14%
Trades: 12/15

30MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +2.64%
Avg Loser: -2.34%
Best: +6.88%
Worst: -6.22%
Trades: 12/15

60MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +3.72%
Avg Loser: -3.21%
Best: +8.88%
Worst: -10.00%
Trades: 12/15

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.1%
Avg Gain: -0.92%
Avg Winner: +3.01%
Avg Loser: -4.58%
Best: +7.01%
Worst: -13.46%
Trades: 13/14

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.57%
Best MFE: +13.33%
Avg Time to MFE: 84 min

On average, ELF alerts reach +3.57% profit potential within 84 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.49%
Worst MAE: -4.47%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.49%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.39:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.39x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 27 alerts, ELF typically reaches +3.57% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 27
Gap Up % 25.9%
Avg Gap -0.36%
Best Gap +3.59%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PERFUMES, COSMETICS & OTHER TOILET PREPARATIONS

How ELF compares to 13 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ELF: -0.41% Sector: -0.19% -0.21%
EOD Gain
ELF: -0.92% Sector: +221.70% -222.63%
Avg MFE
ELF: +3.57% Sector: +2.83% +0.74%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ELF alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2026-08-06 09:25:00 $88.08 +1.58% +0.93% +4.17% +8.13% +4.80% +9.13% -2.36% +1.44% WIN
2026-08-05 09:25:00 $89.45 -1.92% -1.12% -0.07% -0.21% -3.44% +1.02% -2.74% -0.69% LOSS
2026-06-12 09:25:00 $61.29 +0.52% -0.86% -1.48% -1.49% -0.23% +0.83% -0.86% -0.72% WIN
2026-06-08 09:25:00 $49.7 -0.69% +4.72% +6.88% +6.38% +5.19% +8.85% -0.97% +0.70% LOSS
2026-06-04 09:25:00 $52.6 +0.17% -0.02% -1.11% -1.58% -2.21% +0.89% -0.27% +0.08% WIN
2026-06-02 09:25:00 $53.48 -0.28% -0.98% -1.70% -0.99% -2.81% +0.65% -0.28% -0.62% LOSS
2026-05-26 09:25:00 $53.4 -2.04% -3.65% -3.11% -2.90% +1.37% +2.02% -4.34% -1.12% LOSS
2026-05-22 09:25:00 $53.4 -1.14% +2.82% +3.54% +0.40% -0.94% +5.79% -1.99% -0.37% LOSS
2026-05-20 09:25:00 $53.3 -1.46% -1.69% -1.87% -3.36% -4.84% +0.00% +0.00% -0.56% LOSS
2026-05-14 09:25:00 $53.99 -0.03% +1.39% +1.83% +3.74% +2.74% +5.08% -1.54% -1.11% LOSS
2026-05-12 09:25:00 $55.11 -0.92% -1.63% -1.71% -0.83% +1.00% +1.58% -2.07% +0.00% LOSS
2026-05-06 09:25:00 $61.34 -0.51% -1.04% -0.95% +0.44% +0.15% +0.60% -2.18% -0.26% LOSS
2026-05-01 09:25:00 $63.5 -0.39% -1.24% -0.55% -1.23% -4.74% +0.79% -1.15% -0.63% LOSS
2026-04-30 09:25:00 $61.8 -0.02% +0.47% -0.73% +0.82% +3.51% +4.32% -0.91% -0.49% LOSS
2026-04-08 09:25:00 $65.34 +2.42% +1.47% +0.54% -1.40% -5.46% +2.86% -1.04% +0.47% WIN
2026-04-01 09:25:00 $61.66 -0.14% +2.55% +1.36% +1.75% +1.04% +3.42% -0.65% +0.15% LOSS
2026-02-05 09:25:00 $88.81 +6.26% +1.26% -1.59% -6.94% -13.46% +6.97% -0.11% +3.59% WIN
2025-02-07 09:29:46 $66.47 -1.58% +3.02% +2.80% +8.88% +7.01% +10.77% -4.47% -0.26% LOSS
2024-11-07 09:29:15 $110.51 +4.78% +3.57% +6.54% +7.55% +5.03% +13.33% -1.25% -0.24% WIN
2024-08-09 09:25:40 $171.6 -2.46% -5.30% -6.22% -7.58% -6.28% +0.52% +0.00% -2.52% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠ ELF Shows Negative Expectancy

With 48.1% win rate and -0.92% average gain, ELF alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider ELF for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze ELF with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ELF. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ELF historically offers an average upside of +3.57% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ELF Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.1%, ELF shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests ELF may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ELF shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.92%). This suggests ELF is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.