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ELF Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 10 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-02-02 → 2025-02-07
⚠️ Small sample size (10 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, ELF alerts reach +4.15% profit potential within 73 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.69%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.46x the typical drawdown.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 10 alerts, ELF typically reaches +4.15% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.3% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
🏭 Sector Comparison: PERFUMES, COSMETICS & OTHER TOILET PREPARATIONS
How ELF compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical ELF alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-07 | 09:29:46 | $66.47 | -1.58% | +3.02% | +2.80% | +8.88% | +7.01% | +10.77% | -4.47% | -0.26% | LOSS |
| 2024-11-07 | 09:29:15 | $110.51 | +4.78% | +3.57% | +6.54% | +7.55% | +5.03% | +13.33% | -1.25% | -0.24% | WIN |
| 2024-08-09 | 09:25:40 | $171.6 | -2.46% | -5.30% | -6.22% | -7.58% | -6.28% | +0.52% | - | -2.52% | LOSS |
| 2024-02-07 | 09:27:46 | $176.0 | -5.85% | -8.14% | -5.93% | -3.30% | -6.35% | +0.45% | -0.57% | -2.75% | LOSS |
| 2023-11-09 | 09:25:00 | $97.71 | -0.98% | +1.21% | +0.31% | +3.16% | +1.78% | +4.38% | -1.99% | -0.09% | LOSS |
| 2023-11-02 | 09:28:00 | $108.0 | -4.69% | -4.40% | -5.48% | -10.00% | -9.25% | +0.93% | -3.24% | -2.24% | LOSS |
| 2023-08-02 | 09:28:00 | $134.52 | +1.37% | -0.64% | +1.31% | -0.56% | -0.99% | +2.20% | -1.87% | +0.06% | WIN |
| 2023-05-03 | 09:27:00 | $88.47 | +0.05% | +1.27% | +0.73% | +2.53% | +4.52% | +5.97% | -1.65% | -0.53% | WIN |
| 2023-03-13 | 09:26:00 | $68.86 | -0.55% | -1.03% | +1.63% | +0.85% | +1.05% | +2.17% | -1.84% | -0.73% | LOSS |
| 2023-02-02 | 09:28:00 | $69.43 | -2.42% | -3.92% | -2.60% | -5.85% | -3.08% | +0.82% | -0.01% | -0.24% | LOSS |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ ELF Shows Negative Expectancy
Despite a 60.0% win rate, ELF has -0.69% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making ELF profitable.
🔧 Fix ELF Risk/Reward →Why Analyze ELF with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ELF. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, ELF historically offers an average upside of +4.15% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 ELF Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 60.0%, ELF shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-5.06%) outweigh average wins (+2.22%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: ELF shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.69%). This suggests ELF is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.