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EVLV Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 11 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-01 → 2025-01-23

⚠️ Small sample size (11 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock COMPUTER PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT, NEC (SIC 3577)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 19, 2021 🔗 www.evolvtechnology.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.14B 👥 Employees: 287
Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc offers an AI-based touchless security screening. Its touchless security screening systems use artificial intelligence software, cloud services, and sensors to reliably detect dangerous weapons while ignoring harmless items like cell phones, laptops, and keys. It offers products for purchase under a multi-year security-as-a-service subscription pricing model that delivers ongoing value to customers, generates predictable revenue, and creates expansion and upsell opportunities. The firm operates in a single segment that develops, manufactures, markets, and sells security screening products and specific services. Its products are used in different industries such as casinos, industrial workplaces, schools, and ticketed venues.
📊
11
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.85%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+5.65%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.85%
Avg Winner: +1.59%
Avg Loser: -4.10%
Best: +3.52%
Worst: -5.99%
Trades: 5/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 45.5%
Avg Gain: -2.91%
Avg Winner: +4.29%
Avg Loser: -8.90%
Best: +10.81%
Worst: -21.98%
Trades: 5/6

30MIN

Win Rate: 36.4%
Avg Gain: -2.27%
Avg Winner: +5.38%
Avg Loser: -6.64%
Best: +10.77%
Worst: -12.82%
Trades: 4/7

60MIN

Win Rate: 45.5%
Avg Gain: -2.34%
Avg Winner: +4.53%
Avg Loser: -8.06%
Best: +9.89%
Worst: -17.34%
Trades: 5/6

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 36.4%
Avg Gain: -2.60%
Avg Winner: +7.36%
Avg Loser: -8.30%
Best: +12.31%
Worst: -22.11%
Trades: 4/7

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.65%
Best MFE: +14.25%
Avg Time to MFE: 126 min

On average, EVLV alerts reach +5.65% profit potential within 126 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -4.18%
Worst MAE: -26.37%
Avg Time to MAE: 6 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 4.18%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.35:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 11 alerts, EVLV typically reaches +5.65% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 11
Gap Up % 27.3%
Avg Gap -0.33%
Best Gap +3.00%

🏭 Sector Comparison: COMPUTER PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT, NEC

How EVLV compares to 11 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
EVLV: -0.85% Sector: -0.33% -0.51%
EOD Gain
EVLV: -1.51% Sector: -11.36% +9.85%
Avg MFE
EVLV: +6.11% Sector: +2.48% +3.63%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical EVLV alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-23 09:28:30 $3.67 +2.45% +2.18% -0.82% +0.68% +7.63% +8.17% -2.45% +3.00% WIN
2024-10-31 09:28:06 $2.18 - +0.23% -1.83% -0.92% -1.38% +6.42% -1.38% -0.92% -
2024-10-28 09:25:37 $2.59 +1.35% +10.81% +6.18% +6.95% -2.70% +14.25% -1.93% -0.77% WIN
2024-10-25 09:29:10 $2.71 -5.54% -8.67% -11.62% -17.34% -8.86% - -5.90% -0.37% LOSS
2024-05-10 09:27:45 $2.73 - -21.98% -12.82% -3.30% -13.55% +1.10% -26.37% -3.66% -
2024-04-01 09:26:29 $4.55 +3.52% +4.62% +10.77% +9.89% +12.31% +12.53% -2.64% - WIN
2024-02-20 09:29:42 $4.81 -3.53% -3.64% -3.53% -8.21% -8.32% +1.66% -1.25% +1.25% LOSS
2023-10-12 09:26:00 $4.84 -5.99% -10.74% -11.16% -12.71% -22.11% -0.21% -0.21% -0.83% LOSS
2023-03-02 09:27:00 $2.98 -1.34% -7.72% -4.70% -5.87% +1.68% +3.02% -2.35% -1.01% LOSS
2022-03-16 09:25:00 $1.71 +0.29% -0.64% +1.76% +2.63% -1.17% +5.85% -1.17% -0.58% WIN
2022-02-01 09:25:00 $3.2 +0.31% +3.59% +2.81% +2.50% +7.81% +9.38% -0.31% +0.31% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ EVLV Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.85% average gain, EVLV alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider EVLV for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze EVLV with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for EVLV. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, EVLV historically offers an average upside of +5.65% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 EVLV Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, EVLV shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests EVLV may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: EVLV shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.85%). This suggests EVLV is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.