FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

FWRG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 6 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-09-15 → 2024-12-02

⚠️ Small sample size (6 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Common Stock RETAIL-EATING PLACES (SIC 5812)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 01, 2021 🔗 investors.firstwatch.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.01B 👥 Employees: 15,000
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is a daytime restaurant concept serving made-to-order breakfast, brunch, and lunch using fresh ingredients. It generates revenues from Restaurant sales and Franchise revenues.
📊
6
Total Alerts
🎯
66.7%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+0.29%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+2.72%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.17%
Avg Winner: +1.15%
Avg Loser: -0.81%
Best: +1.72%
Worst: -1.51%
Trades: 3/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.00%
Avg Winner: +1.26%
Avg Loser: -1.26%
Best: +1.42%
Worst: -2.14%
Trades: 3/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.29%
Avg Winner: +1.37%
Avg Loser: -1.86%
Best: +1.89%
Worst: -3.03%
Trades: 4/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.30%
Avg Winner: +1.30%
Avg Loser: -1.46%
Best: +1.63%
Worst: -4.13%
Trades: 2/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.28%
Avg Winner: +3.64%
Avg Loser: -3.07%
Best: +6.92%
Worst: -7.02%
Trades: 3/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.72%
Best MFE: +7.48%
Avg Time to MFE: 108 min

On average, FWRG alerts reach +2.72% profit potential within 108 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.51%
Worst MAE: -2.21%
Avg Time to MAE: 4 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.51%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

5.31:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 5.31x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 6 alerts, FWRG typically reaches +2.72% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 6
Gap Up % 83.3%
Avg Gap +0.27%
Best Gap +0.63%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-EATING PLACES

How FWRG compares to 27 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
FWRG: +0.17% Sector: -0.12% +0.30%
EOD Gain
FWRG: +0.28% Sector: +6.34% -6.06%
Avg MFE
FWRG: +2.72% Sector: +2.99% -0.27%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical FWRG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-02 09:28:44 $19.09 -0.16% -0.47% -0.68% -0.05% -1.20% +0.63% +0.05% +0.05% LOSS
2024-04-02 09:28:14 $25.2 -1.51% -2.14% -3.03% -4.13% -7.02% +0.68% +0.20% +0.52% LOSS
2024-03-27 09:28:50 $24.13 +0.73% +1.06% +1.53% -0.21% +0.91% +2.20% +0.08% +0.58% WIN
2023-06-27 09:25:00 $16.25 +1.72% +1.42% +1.60% +1.63% +3.08% +3.38% +0.25% +0.62% WIN
2023-05-16 09:25:00 $15.9 +1.01% +1.32% +1.89% +0.97% +6.92% +7.48% -1.45% +0.63% WIN
2022-09-15 09:25:00 $15.4 -0.75% -1.17% +0.45% - -0.97% +1.95% -2.21% -0.78% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 66.7% Baseline on FWRG

The 66.7% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push FWRG's performance to 75%+.

Optimize FWRG Strategy →

Why Analyze FWRG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for FWRG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, FWRG historically offers an average upside of +2.72% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 FWRG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, FWRG shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show FWRG performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.29%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.