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Ticker Report — Historical Last signal ·

$FWRG

Trade-Ideas alerts 63.6% at 30-min n=11 2022-09-15 → 2026-06-16

⚠ SMALL SAMPLE · 11 alerts only. Statistics may have high variance — interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Common Stock RETAIL-EATING PLACES (SIC 5812)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 01, 2021 🔗 www.firstwatch.com
💰 Market Cap: $652.3M 👥 Employees: 17,500
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is a daytime restaurant concept serving made-to-order breakfast, brunch, and lunch using fresh ingredients. The company generates revenues from Restaurant sales and Franchise revenues. It generates maximum revenue from Restaurant sales.
Total alerts
11
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · 30MIN
63.6%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · 30MIN
-0.07%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+2.47%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading FWRG on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 54.5%
Avg Gain: +0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.87%
Avg Loser: -0.92%
Best: +1.72%
Worst: -1.77%
Trades: 6/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 54.5%
Avg Gain: +0.06%
Avg Winner: +1.31%
Avg Loser: -1.44%
Best: +2.37%
Worst: -2.57%
Trades: 6/5

30MIN

Win Rate: 63.6%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +1.13%
Avg Loser: -2.17%
Best: +1.89%
Worst: -3.53%
Trades: 7/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 45.5%
Avg Gain: -0.51%
Avg Winner: +1.36%
Avg Loser: -2.48%
Best: +1.71%
Worst: -4.13%
Trades: 5/5

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 36.4%
Avg Gain: -0.86%
Avg Winner: +3.18%
Avg Loser: -3.17%
Best: +6.92%
Worst: -7.02%
Trades: 4/7

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.47%
Best MFE: +7.48%
Avg Time to MFE: 94 min

On average, FWRG alerts reach +2.47% profit potential within 94 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.61%
Worst MAE: -2.27%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.61%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

4.08:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 4.08x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 11 alerts, FWRG typically reaches +2.47% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 11
Gap Up % 72.7%
Avg Gap +0.20%
Best Gap +1.28%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-EATING PLACES

How FWRG compares to 31 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
FWRG: +0.06% Sector: -0.04% +0.10%
EOD Gain
FWRG: -0.86% Sector: +4.42% -5.28%
Avg MFE
FWRG: +2.47% Sector: +3.17% -0.70%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical FWRG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2026-06-16 09:25:00 $11.8 +0.89% +2.37% +0.76% +1.69% -1.69% +2.37% +0.00% +0.34% WIN
2026-06-02 09:25:00 $10.91 +0.64% -2.57% -3.53% -4.12% -4.31% +2.29% +0.46% +1.28% WIN
2026-06-01 09:25:00 $11.88 -1.77% -0.84% -1.43% -3.87% -6.31% -0.59% -2.27% -1.85% LOSS
2026-05-29 09:25:00 $11.71 +0.26% +0.81% +1.11% +1.71% -0.68% +3.16% -0.30% +1.11% WIN
2026-05-28 09:25:00 $11.48 -0.44% +0.87% +0.57% +0.78% +1.83% +3.62% -1.48% -0.35% LOSS
2024-12-02 09:28:44 $19.09 -0.16% -0.47% -0.68% -0.05% -1.20% +0.63% +0.05% +0.05% LOSS
2024-04-02 09:28:14 $25.2 -1.51% -2.14% -3.03% -4.13% -7.02% +0.68% +0.20% +0.52% LOSS
2024-03-27 09:28:50 $24.13 +0.73% +1.06% +1.53% -0.21% +0.91% +2.20% +0.08% +0.58% WIN
2023-06-27 09:25:00 $16.25 +1.72% +1.42% +1.60% +1.63% +3.08% +3.38% +0.25% +0.62% WIN
2023-05-16 09:25:00 $15.9 +1.01% +1.32% +1.89% +0.97% +6.92% +7.48% -1.45% +0.63% WIN
2022-09-15 09:25:00 $15.4 -0.75% -1.17% +0.45% +0.00% -0.97% +1.95% -2.21% -0.78% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠ FWRG Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 63.6% win rate, FWRG has -0.07% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve win size or reduce loss size, making FWRG profitable.

🔧 Fix FWRG Risk / Reward →

Why Analyze FWRG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for FWRG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, FWRG historically offers an average upside of +2.47% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 FWRG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 63.6%, FWRG shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-2.17%) outweigh average wins (+1.13%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: FWRG shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.07%). This suggests FWRG is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.