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LOCO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-10-12 → 2024-05-03

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. RETAIL-EATING PLACES (SIC 5812)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 25, 2014 🔗 www.elpolloloco.com
💰 Market Cap: $318.4M 👥 Employees: 4,143
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc operates and franchises hundreds of fast-casual chicken restaurants in the United States. Restaurant locations are typically free-standing and include drive-thrus, and menus include many low-priced options. Poultry is the company's largest food cost, accounting for roughly 38% of total food and paper cost, and the company manages that commodity price risk by using multiple suppliers and entering supply contracts of varying lengths depending on market conditions.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
66.7%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
+0.74%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+8.95%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: +3.44%
Avg Winner: +11.16%
Avg Loser: -0.42%
Best: +11.16%
Worst: -0.56%
Trades: 1/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.74%
Avg Winner: +1.89%
Avg Loser: -1.56%
Best: +3.01%
Worst: -1.56%
Trades: 2/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.95%
Avg Winner: +0.68%
Avg Loser: -1.77%
Best: +0.68%
Worst: -3.10%
Trades: 1/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -2.23%
Avg Winner: +0.28%
Avg Loser: -3.49%
Best: +0.28%
Worst: -6.76%
Trades: 1/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +1.49%
Avg Winner: +5.20%
Avg Loser: -5.92%
Best: +7.67%
Worst: -5.92%
Trades: 2/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +8.95%
Best MFE: +12.69%
Avg Time to MFE: 135 min

On average, LOCO alerts reach +8.95% profit potential within 135 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.74%
Worst MAE: -5.11%
Avg Time to MAE: 35 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.74%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.26:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.26x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, LOCO typically reaches +8.95% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 7.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 100.0%
Avg Gap +1.70%
Best Gap +2.16%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-EATING PLACES

How LOCO compares to 27 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
LOCO: +3.44% Sector: -0.12% +3.56%
EOD Gain
LOCO: +1.49% Sector: +6.34% -4.85%
Avg MFE
LOCO: +8.95% Sector: +2.99% +5.96%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical LOCO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-05-03 09:26:07 $10.64 +11.16% +3.01% -3.10% -6.76% -5.92% +12.69% -2.63% +2.16% WIN
2023-03-29 09:27:00 $9.0 -0.56% -1.56% -0.44% -0.22% +7.67% +9.78% -5.11% +1.67% LOSS
2022-10-12 09:25:00 $10.25 -0.29% +0.78% +0.68% +0.28% +2.73% +4.39% -0.49% +1.27% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 66.7% Baseline on LOCO

The 66.7% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push LOCO's performance to 75%+.

Optimize LOCO Strategy →

Why Analyze LOCO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for LOCO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, LOCO historically offers an average upside of +8.95% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 LOCO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, LOCO shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show LOCO performs best on the 15MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.74%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.