FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →
Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$UPST

Trade-Ideas alerts 48.9% at 5-min n=607 2022-01-07 → 2026-10-02

🏢 Company Profile

Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock FINANCE SERVICES (SIC 6199)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Dec 16, 2020 🔗 www.upstart.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.22B 👥 Employees: 1,405
Upstart Holdings Inc provides credit services. The company provides a proprietary, cloud-based, artificial intelligence lending platform. The platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to the network of Upstart AI-enabled bank partners. The company support development of different lending product offerings, which are grouped into three operating segments - Personal Lending (unsecured personal loans and small dollar loans), Auto Lending (auto refinance, auto retail loans, and auto secured personal loans), and Other (HELOCs and other).
Total alerts
607
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · 5MIN
48.9%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · 5MIN
+0.03%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+4.60%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading UPST on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

Playable UPST setups

Historical UPST setups in the simulator. Click to see chart, edge stats, and community discussion.

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 48.9%
Avg Gain: +0.03%
Avg Winner: +1.21%
Avg Loser: -1.11%
Best: +5.93%
Worst: -10.77%
Trades: 296/305

15MIN

Win Rate: 45.8%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +2.24%
Avg Loser: -1.91%
Best: +14.07%
Worst: -9.64%
Trades: 277/326

30MIN

Win Rate: 47.4%
Avg Gain: +0.04%
Avg Winner: +2.77%
Avg Loser: -2.45%
Best: +18.29%
Worst: -13.94%
Trades: 287/315

60MIN

Win Rate: 47.3%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +3.30%
Avg Loser: -3.02%
Best: +20.77%
Worst: -14.52%
Trades: 286/319

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 44.8%
Avg Gain: +0.11%
Avg Winner: +5.11%
Avg Loser: -3.97%
Best: +28.57%
Worst: -20.60%
Trades: 272/334

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.60%
Best MFE: +29.49%
Avg Time to MFE: 116 min

On average, UPST alerts reach +4.60% profit potential within 116 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.64%
Worst MAE: -11.69%
Avg Time to MAE: 14 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.64%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.8:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.8x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 607 alerts, UPST typically reaches +4.60% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 607
Gap Up % 37.1%
Avg Gap -0.12%
Best Gap +3.14%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FINANCE SERVICES

How UPST compares to 99 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
UPST: +0.03% Sector: -0.20% +0.23%
EOD Gain
UPST: +0.10% Sector: +62.98% -62.88%
Avg MFE
UPST: +4.61% Sector: +5.03% -0.42%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical UPST alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2026-10-02 09:25:00 $23.39 +0.21% -0.92% -1.03% -0.51% -2.48% +1.08% -0.04% +0.47% WIN
2026-09-30 09:25:00 $23.4 -0.60% -1.50% -0.68% -1.15% -1.75% +0.56% -1.92% -0.26% LOSS
2026-09-28 09:25:00 $23.36 +0.30% -1.88% -2.33% -0.92% -1.41% +0.75% -0.08% +0.30% WIN
2026-09-25 09:25:00 $24.85 -0.54% -2.34% -1.99% -1.57% -4.19% +0.60% +0.12% -0.24% LOSS
2026-09-24 09:25:00 $24.3 +0.11% -1.04% -2.05% -0.59% +1.39% +1.97% -2.40% +0.11% WIN
2026-09-22 09:25:00 $26.4 -0.61% -1.29% -2.80% -2.50% -1.63% +0.80% -0.76% +0.38% LOSS
2026-09-21 09:25:00 $25.61 +0.12% -0.98% -0.66% +0.04% -0.12% +1.25% -1.29% -0.31% WIN
2026-09-17 09:25:00 $25.56 -0.88% -1.98% -1.96% -1.80% -3.09% +0.43% -1.02% +0.31% LOSS
2026-09-14 09:25:00 $25.22 +1.23% +1.96% +1.67% +1.98% +3.49% +5.08% -0.32% -0.04% WIN
2026-09-11 09:25:00 $26.13 -0.27% -1.88% -2.30% -2.10% -2.07% +0.77% -1.19% +0.21% LOSS
2026-09-10 09:25:00 $25.54 -0.80% -1.15% -1.08% +0.72% -1.74% +0.92% -1.78% -0.37% LOSS
2026-09-09 09:25:00 $26.76 +0.34% -0.38% -1.16% -0.67% -3.25% +0.90% +0.15% +0.19% WIN
2026-09-04 09:25:00 $27.95 +1.04% +0.02% +0.21% +0.52% +0.36% +1.04% -0.47% -0.07% WIN
2026-09-01 09:25:00 $28.18 -0.85% -1.33% -2.11% +0.32% -2.82% +0.34% -2.25% -0.59% LOSS
2026-08-20 09:25:00 $30.44 -1.41% -4.89% -4.62% -7.23% -5.19% -0.03% -0.53% -0.07% LOSS
2026-08-07 09:25:00 $30.26 -0.91% +1.50% +1.16% +0.26% +2.74% +2.83% -1.88% -0.08% LOSS
2026-08-06 09:25:00 $29.39 +0.90% +3.33% +1.53% +3.61% +1.09% +5.55% -0.71% -0.42% WIN
2026-08-05 09:25:00 $35.7 -10.77% -9.64% -8.68% -9.66% -15.41% +0.00% -2.02% -3.10% LOSS
2026-08-04 09:25:00 $29.93 -0.17% +0.40% +0.13% +0.70% +1.30% +3.21% -0.84% -0.84% LOSS
2026-07-30 09:25:00 $26.88 -0.32% -2.31% -1.41% -2.47% +0.61% +1.12% -3.67% -1.32% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

Beat the 48.9% Baseline on UPST

The 48.9% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and push UPST's performance to 75%+.

Optimize UPST Strategy →

Why Analyze UPST with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for UPST. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, UPST historically offers an average upside of +4.60% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 UPST Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.9%, UPST shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show UPST performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.03%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.