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UPST Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 519 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-07 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock FINANCE SERVICES (SIC 6199)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Dec 16, 2020 🔗 www.upstart.com
💰 Market Cap: $4.41B 👥 Employees: 1,193
Upstart Holdings Inc provides credit services. The company provides a proprietary, cloud-based, artificial intelligence lending platform. The platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to the network of Upstart AI-enabled bank partners. Upstart's platform includes personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit, and small-dollar loans.
📊
519
Total Alerts
🎯
49.1%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.07%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+4.93%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 49.1%
Avg Gain: +0.07%
Avg Winner: +1.28%
Avg Loser: -1.12%
Best: +5.93%
Worst: -4.91%
Trades: 254/260

15MIN

Win Rate: 47.0%
Avg Gain: +0.09%
Avg Winner: +2.37%
Avg Loser: -1.95%
Best: +14.07%
Worst: -9.56%
Trades: 243/272

30MIN

Win Rate: 48.5%
Avg Gain: +0.16%
Avg Winner: +2.94%
Avg Loser: -2.48%
Best: +18.29%
Worst: -12.42%
Trades: 251/263

60MIN

Win Rate: 47.8%
Avg Gain: +0.07%
Avg Winner: +3.55%
Avg Loser: -3.12%
Best: +20.77%
Worst: -14.52%
Trades: 247/270

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 45.1%
Avg Gain: +0.22%
Avg Winner: +5.45%
Avg Loser: -4.09%
Best: +28.57%
Worst: -20.60%
Trades: 234/284

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.93%
Best MFE: +29.49%
Avg Time to MFE: 116 min

On average, UPST alerts reach +4.93% profit potential within 116 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.73%
Worst MAE: -11.69%
Avg Time to MAE: 14 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.73%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.85:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.85x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 519 alerts, UPST typically reaches +4.93% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 519
Gap Up % 36.8%
Avg Gap -0.12%
Best Gap +3.14%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FINANCE SERVICES

How UPST compares to 51 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
UPST: +0.07% Sector: -0.22% +0.28%
EOD Gain
UPST: +0.21% Sector: +101.11% -100.90%
Avg MFE
UPST: +4.94% Sector: +5.23% -0.29%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical UPST alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:28:02 $79.96 +1.51% +3.33% +4.00% +6.34% +3.08% +7.67% -0.26% +0.29% WIN
2025-02-13 09:29:44 $87.7 +4.39% +3.03% +5.95% +7.94% -4.04% +9.95% -0.06% +0.10% WIN
2025-02-12 09:25:29 $81.76 +1.24% +7.17% +7.79% +7.24% +8.57% +10.62% -2.15% +2.05% WIN
2025-02-11 09:25:40 $69.71 -1.40% -0.72% +0.66% -1.09% -3.40% +1.13% -2.57% -0.30% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:26:57 $71.38 -0.53% +1.29% +1.65% +2.54% -0.62% +3.39% -2.17% -0.35% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:29:03 $67.74 +3.71% +4.86% +4.46% +4.68% +1.64% +6.88% -0.53% - WIN
2025-02-03 09:29:51 $60.91 +0.25% -0.44% -0.46% +1.74% +3.71% +4.20% -1.58% +0.64% WIN
2025-01-27 09:27:59 $64.0 -1.25% +0.28% +3.40% +4.62% +1.58% +6.20% -1.70% +1.05% LOSS
2025-01-15 09:25:59 $62.31 +0.72% -1.30% +1.44% +1.91% +0.58% +3.02% -2.28% -0.37% WIN
2025-01-13 09:25:58 $55.55 +0.81% -0.42% +3.55% +0.85% +2.74% +4.05% -0.63% -0.29% WIN
2025-01-10 09:26:21 $58.01 -0.50% -2.84% -1.86% -2.36% -0.47% +0.03% -2.09% -0.21% LOSS
2025-01-08 09:27:17 $58.65 +1.33% +1.23% -0.96% -0.94% +0.97% +2.20% -0.22% - WIN
2024-12-30 09:26:50 $65.97 +0.42% -1.81% -1.62% -2.99% -4.02% +1.12% -0.09% +0.26% WIN
2024-12-23 09:26:59 $69.0 +0.36% -1.61% -1.52% -2.35% -1.45% +0.65% -0.94% -0.25% WIN
2024-12-20 09:28:03 $66.5 +0.60% +0.41% +0.81% +5.01% +2.86% +7.32% -1.43% -0.75% WIN
2024-12-19 09:27:18 $75.5 +0.82% -0.93% -4.11% -7.83% -10.95% +1.66% -1.11% +0.06% WIN
2024-12-16 09:28:52 $84.73 -3.89% -1.81% -1.72% -0.39% -0.97% +0.89% -0.68% +0.71% LOSS
2024-12-13 09:29:41 $80.28 +4.97% +3.16% +5.26% +4.33% +5.21% +10.80% -0.14% -0.09% WIN
2024-12-11 09:29:22 $76.69 -0.22% -0.81% -0.78% -0.72% +2.23% +2.61% -2.16% -0.85% LOSS
2024-12-03 09:25:31 $68.15 +0.88% +0.54% +3.05% +4.08% +6.79% +8.92% -0.88% +0.51% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 49.1% Baseline on UPST

The 49.1% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push UPST's performance to 75%+.

Optimize UPST Strategy →

Why Analyze UPST with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for UPST. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, UPST historically offers an average upside of +4.93% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 UPST Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 49.1%, UPST shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show UPST performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.07%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.