FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

MSTR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 192 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-24 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Strategy Inc Common Stock Class A FINANCE SERVICES (SIC 6199)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 11, 1998 🔗 www.strategy.com
💰 Market Cap: $47.20B 👥 Employees: 1,546
Strategy Inc is a bitcoin treasury company and a provider of business intelligence services. It is designed to provide investors varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offering a range of securities, including equity and fixed-income instruments. The company also provides industry AI-powered enterprise analytics software. It has one reportable operating segment: the Software Business, which is engaged in the design, development, marketing, and sales of the company's enterprise analytics software platform through cloud subscriptions and licensing arrangements and related services (i.e., product support, consulting, and education). Geographically, the company operates in EMEA, U.S. and Other Countries.
📊
192
Total Alerts
🎯
58.9%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+0.51%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+5.02%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 49.0%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.98%
Avg Loser: -1.01%
Best: +3.42%
Worst: -4.85%
Trades: 94/98

15MIN

Win Rate: 52.6%
Avg Gain: +0.07%
Avg Winner: +1.61%
Avg Loser: -1.65%
Best: +7.66%
Worst: -12.38%
Trades: 101/90

30MIN

Win Rate: 58.9%
Avg Gain: +0.51%
Avg Winner: +2.22%
Avg Loser: -1.94%
Best: +12.73%
Worst: -9.19%
Trades: 113/79

60MIN

Win Rate: 55.7%
Avg Gain: +0.63%
Avg Winner: +2.97%
Avg Loser: -2.31%
Best: +13.73%
Worst: -15.09%
Trades: 107/85

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 40.1%
Avg Gain: -18.07%
Avg Winner: +4.98%
Avg Loser: -33.51%
Best: +20.09%
Worst: -91.23%
Trades: 77/115

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.02%
Best MFE: +32.54%
Avg Time to MFE: 153 min

On average, MSTR alerts reach +5.02% profit potential within 153 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.83%
Worst MAE: -13.42%
Avg Time to MAE: 16 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.83%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.74:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.74x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 192 alerts, MSTR typically reaches +5.02% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 192
Gap Up % 49.0%
Avg Gap -0.04%
Best Gap +2.19%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FINANCE SERVICES

How MSTR compares to 51 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MSTR: -0.03% Sector: -0.22% +0.18%
EOD Gain
MSTR: -18.07% Sector: +101.11% -119.18%
Avg MFE
MSTR: +5.02% Sector: +5.23% -0.21%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MSTR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:26:34 $325.4 +0.67% +1.06% +0.67% -0.06% +3.79% +5.99% -0.52% -0.08% WIN
2025-02-13 09:29:18 $325.55 -0.46% -0.50% -0.43% +0.23% -0.19% +1.55% -1.34% -0.02% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:28:36 $315.7 +0.55% +1.30% +1.65% +1.06% +3.52% +4.90% -0.48% +0.08% WIN
2025-02-11 09:28:12 $332.35 -0.66% +0.11% +1.13% -0.01% -3.88% +1.85% -0.99% +0.19% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:28:43 $333.9 +1.78% +0.72% -0.17% -0.03% +0.22% +1.94% -0.51% -0.12% WIN
2025-02-07 09:26:48 $334.81 +2.47% +1.88% +0.60% -0.01% -2.17% +2.86% -1.19% +0.06% WIN
2025-02-06 09:29:02 $339.0 +0.61% -2.26% -1.82% -0.47% -3.99% +1.62% -2.03% -0.09% WIN
2025-02-05 09:27:18 $349.61 -0.78% -0.95% -1.71% -1.18% -3.69% +0.79% -0.20% -0.17% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:25:05 $341.93 +0.34% +2.24% +2.52% +1.60% +1.87% +3.47% -0.44% -0.21% WIN
2025-02-03 09:27:19 $309.49 +1.93% +4.04% +3.23% +6.10% +12.15% +12.72% -0.19% +0.16% WIN
2025-01-31 09:29:46 $340.21 -1.01% -0.95% -0.21% +0.97% -1.59% +3.67% -1.92% -0.03% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:29:00 $345.87 +1.52% +0.76% +1.92% +0.04% -1.67% +2.96% -0.33% -0.01% WIN
2025-01-29 09:29:26 $337.73 -0.07% -0.10% -0.28% -0.44% +1.04% +1.75% -2.49% +0.14% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:27:28 $344.55 +0.54% -1.76% -0.04% +0.13% -2.50% +1.27% -0.55% +0.04% WIN
2025-01-27 09:29:53 $340.4 -0.43% +0.82% +3.56% +1.89% +2.21% +4.84% -0.82% +0.03% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:25:47 $377.51 -1.25% -0.79% -1.43% -1.44% -6.32% +0.17% +0.05% +0.04% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:27:33 $371.38 +2.97% +3.31% +3.41% +3.00% +0.47% +5.07% -0.18% +0.10% WIN
2025-01-22 09:26:13 $384.27 +1.03% +0.24% +0.22% -0.80% -1.81% +1.58% -1.82% +0.17% WIN
2025-01-21 09:28:18 $394.66 -1.86% -4.09% -4.24% -5.42% -1.41% +2.47% -6.82% +0.20% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:25:16 $382.82 -0.05% +1.88% +1.59% +1.55% +3.57% +4.14% -0.70% +0.12% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 58.9% Baseline on MSTR

The 58.9% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push MSTR's performance to 75%+.

Optimize MSTR Strategy →

Why Analyze MSTR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MSTR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MSTR historically offers an average upside of +5.02% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MSTR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 58.9%, MSTR shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show MSTR performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.51%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.