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NCLH Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 541 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 β†’ 2025-02-11

🏒 Company Profile

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares WATER TRANSPORTATION (SIC 4400)
πŸ“ NYSE πŸ“… IPO: Jan 18, 2013 πŸ”— www.nclhltdinvestor.com
πŸ’° Market Cap: $9.53B πŸ‘₯ Employees: 41,700
Norwegian Cruise Line is the world's third-largest publicly traded cruise company by berths (around 71,000). It operates 34 ships across three brandsβ€”Norwegian, Oceania, and Regent Seven Seasβ€”offering both freestyle and luxury cruising. The company redeployed its entire fleet as of May 2022. With 13 passenger vessels on order among its brands through 2036, representing 38,400 incremental berths, Norwegian is increasing capacity faster than its peers, expanding its brand globally. Norwegian sails to around 700 global destinations.
πŸ“Š
541
Total Alerts
🎯
52.3%
Win Rate (5MIN)
πŸ’°
+0.04%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
πŸš€
+2.55%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

πŸ“ˆ Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 52.3%
Avg Gain: +0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.71%
Avg Loser: -0.72%
Best: +4.27%
Worst: -4.38%
Trades: 282/248

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.4%
Avg Gain: +0.03%
Avg Winner: +1.26%
Avg Loser: -1.24%
Best: +5.01%
Worst: -7.00%
Trades: 272/264

30MIN

Win Rate: 51.7%
Avg Gain: +0.08%
Avg Winner: +1.58%
Avg Loser: -1.54%
Best: +7.70%
Worst: -7.13%
Trades: 279/258

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.7%
Avg Gain: +0.00%
Avg Winner: +1.82%
Avg Loser: -1.72%
Best: +8.25%
Worst: -10.87%
Trades: 263/276

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 49.5%
Avg Gain: +0.07%
Avg Winner: +2.68%
Avg Loser: -2.56%
Best: +13.77%
Worst: -13.61%
Trades: 268/266

πŸš€ Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

πŸ“ˆ MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.55%
Best MFE: +21.34%
Avg Time to MFE: 122 min

On average, NCLH alerts reach +2.55% profit potential within 122 minutes.

πŸ“‰ MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.94%
Worst MAE: -7.04%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.94%.

βš–οΈ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.72:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.72x the typical drawdown.

πŸ’‘ Trading Insight: Based on 541 alerts, NCLH typically reaches +2.55% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.0% to capture most of the move.

πŸŒ… Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 β†’ 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 541
Gap Up % 45.5%
Avg Gap -0.04%
Best Gap +2.62%

🏭 Sector Comparison: WATER TRANSPORTATION

How NCLH compares to 6 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NCLH: +0.04% Sector: +0.05% -0.01%
EOD Gain
NCLH: +0.07% Sector: +0.12% -0.05%
Avg MFE
NCLH: +2.52% Sector: +2.60% -0.08%

πŸ“‹ Last 20 Alerts

Historical NCLH alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-11 09:25:48 $26.36 -0.49% -1.40% -0.85% -1.40% -0.64% +0.08% +0.04% -0.08% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:27:24 $27.05 +1.28% +1.33% +2.66% +3.77% +2.26% +4.99% -0.18% +0.11% WIN
2025-01-28 09:29:33 $26.43 +1.84% +2.91% +3.41% +5.01% +7.61% +7.95% +0.08% +0.08% WIN
2025-01-24 09:27:04 $26.33 -0.34% -0.87% -1.10% -1.35% -2.47% +0.10% -0.65% - LOSS
2025-01-16 09:29:47 $26.09 +0.75% -0.23% -0.69% +0.34% +1.34% +1.34% -1.03% +0.23% WIN
2025-01-15 09:29:35 $26.4 +0.45% -0.20% -0.17% -0.06% -1.44% +1.21% -0.27% +0.49% WIN
2025-01-08 09:25:12 $25.26 -0.65% +0.18% +0.26% +0.71% +2.61% +3.07% -0.93% -0.04% LOSS
2025-01-07 09:29:56 $25.59 -1.91% -2.11% -3.38% -2.34% -0.31% +0.12% -0.63% -0.04% LOSS
2025-01-02 09:28:35 $26.15 -0.12% -0.46% -0.04% -0.31% -0.88% +0.57% -0.69% +0.11% LOSS
2024-12-30 09:29:55 $25.28 -0.16% +0.20% +0.06% +0.87% +1.86% +3.32% -0.59% - LOSS
2024-12-20 09:29:51 $26.48 -0.26% +1.10% -0.08% -0.62% +1.62% +2.83% -1.81% -0.08% LOSS
2024-12-13 09:25:53 $27.31 -1.17% -1.57% -1.94% -1.81% -1.87% +0.59% - +0.07% LOSS
2024-12-10 09:29:26 $26.75 -0.37% -0.90% -0.52% +0.54% -1.31% +2.17% -1.61% -0.04% LOSS
2024-12-06 09:26:44 $27.78 +1.46% +1.31% -1.30% -0.79% -0.47% +1.69% -0.29% -0.29% WIN
2024-12-05 09:28:08 $27.84 +1.04% +1.11% +2.12% +0.74% -0.79% +2.19% - +0.57% WIN
2024-12-02 09:28:17 $27.15 +4.27% +5.01% +4.55% +3.48% +4.42% +5.49% -0.33% +0.52% WIN
2024-11-25 09:28:06 $27.33 +0.22% +0.11% -0.22% -0.79% -0.66% +0.59% -0.59% -0.29% WIN
2024-11-19 09:27:02 $25.41 -0.26% +0.47% +0.24% +0.41% +3.66% +4.76% -1.42% -0.20% LOSS
2024-11-11 09:28:25 $27.58 -0.49% -2.03% -1.85% -0.47% +0.87% +0.98% -2.54% +0.44% LOSS
2024-11-07 09:28:45 $27.53 -0.82% -0.51% -0.22% -0.24% -1.74% +0.76% -1.16% -0.62% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

πŸš€ Beat the 52.3% Baseline on NCLH

The 52.3% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push NCLH's performance to 75%+.

Optimize NCLH Strategy β†’

Why Analyze NCLH with FILTRIX?

πŸ›‘οΈ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NCLH. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

πŸ’° Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NCLH historically offers an average upside of +2.55% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

πŸ“Š NCLH Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 52.3%, NCLH shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show NCLH performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.04%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.