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RCL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 117 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-04 → 2025-01-31

🏢 Company Profile

Royal Caribbean Group WATER TRANSPORTATION (SIC 4400)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Apr 27, 1993 🔗 www.royalcaribbeangroup.com
💰 Market Cap: $78.03B 👥 Employees: 106,000
Royal Caribbean is the world's second-largest cruise company by revenues, operating 68 ships across five global and partner brands in the cruise vacation industry. Brands the company operates include Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea. The company also has a 50% investment in a joint venture that operates TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises. The selection of brands in the portfolio allows Royal to compete on the basis of innovation, quality of ships and service, variety of itineraries, choice of destinations, and price. The company completed the divestiture of its Azamara brand in 2021, plans to launch its new Celebrity River Cruise brand in 2027, the same year it is set to operate eight private destination locations (up from two currently).
📊
117
Total Alerts
🎯
56.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.08%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.87%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 56.0%
Avg Gain: +0.08%
Avg Winner: +0.71%
Avg Loser: -0.72%
Best: +4.42%
Worst: -2.52%
Trades: 65/50

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.9%
Avg Gain: -0.19%
Avg Winner: +1.41%
Avg Loser: -1.85%
Best: +5.56%
Worst: -4.85%
Trades: 59/57

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.16%
Avg Winner: +2.03%
Avg Loser: -1.71%
Best: +8.31%
Worst: -5.46%
Trades: 58/58

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.3%
Avg Gain: +0.20%
Avg Winner: +2.66%
Avg Loser: -2.09%
Best: +11.53%
Worst: -7.93%
Trades: 56/60

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 51.3%
Avg Gain: +0.19%
Avg Winner: +3.15%
Avg Loser: -2.93%
Best: +16.94%
Worst: -9.10%
Trades: 60/57

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.87%
Best MFE: +17.88%
Avg Time to MFE: 120 min

On average, RCL alerts reach +2.87% profit potential within 120 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.10%
Worst MAE: -7.15%
Avg Time to MAE: 16 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.10%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.62:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.62x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 117 alerts, RCL typically reaches +2.87% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 117
Gap Up % 47.0%
Avg Gap -0.05%
Best Gap +1.51%

🏭 Sector Comparison: WATER TRANSPORTATION

How RCL compares to 6 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
RCL: +0.08% Sector: +0.05% +0.04%
EOD Gain
RCL: +0.22% Sector: +0.12% +0.11%
Avg MFE
RCL: +2.89% Sector: +2.60% +0.28%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical RCL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-31 09:27:54 $275.4 +0.06% +0.25% -0.66% -0.69% -3.20% +0.61% -0.30% +0.00% WIN
2025-01-28 09:27:28 $246.56 +0.30% +3.07% +2.92% +5.19% +7.58% +9.49% -0.23% +0.08% WIN
2025-01-17 09:26:36 $236.5 -0.36% +0.33% +1.32% +1.76% +2.25% +2.95% -0.87% -0.37% LOSS
2025-01-15 09:29:25 $233.5 +0.41% -0.07% +0.21% -0.12% -0.44% +1.07% +0.12% +0.12% WIN
2024-11-26 09:26:26 $240.5 +0.50% +0.80% +1.10% +1.15% +1.66% +2.25% +0.20% +0.42% WIN
2024-11-01 09:26:38 $207.6 -0.50% -1.32% -1.48% -0.97% -2.67% -0.34% -1.01% -0.57% LOSS
2024-10-29 09:29:40 $197.35 +4.42% +4.65% +5.05% +5.05% +6.46% +8.50% -0.05% +0.26% WIN
2024-10-23 09:29:48 $202.96 -0.48% -0.66% -1.24% -0.47% -0.90% -0.11% -1.29% -0.57% LOSS
2024-09-27 09:29:38 $182.81 -0.89% -1.97% -1.09% -1.79% -2.88% +0.01% -0.37% -0.04% LOSS
2024-07-23 09:26:22 $168.1 +0.76% +0.99% +1.60% +2.61% +1.56% +3.13% +0.02% +0.08% WIN
2024-04-25 09:25:25 $139.72 +0.08% -1.02% -0.81% +0.01% -1.61% +0.87% -0.81% -0.34% WIN
2024-02-22 09:29:20 $122.9 -0.99% -1.36% -0.37% -0.21% -0.28% +1.64% -1.36% +0.61% LOSS
2024-02-01 00:00:00 $131.75 - - - - -3.64% +1.53% -3.04% -1.14% -
2023-12-19 09:29:00 $121.15 +0.04% +0.73% +1.19% +1.73% +2.25% +2.54% -0.10% +0.15% WIN
2023-10-26 09:25:00 $84.38 -0.38% -4.72% -5.46% -1.07% -1.78% +1.33% -7.15% -0.58% LOSS
2023-09-29 09:26:00 $93.1 +2.62% +1.88% +2.32% +1.17% -1.03% +3.07% - +0.76% WIN
2023-09-15 09:27:00 $99.01 -0.84% -1.20% -0.92% +0.36% -1.61% +0.43% -1.37% -0.23% LOSS
2023-07-27 09:29:00 $109.77 -2.52% -2.10% -1.56% -3.09% -0.08% +2.10% -3.66% -0.70% LOSS
2023-06-26 09:29:00 $94.35 +1.41% +2.56% +3.78% +2.81% +3.06% +4.02% -0.74% -0.11% WIN
2023-06-12 09:25:00 $92.66 -0.04% +0.72% +0.39% +1.64% +0.97% +2.04% -0.30% +0.14% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 56.0% Baseline on RCL

The 56.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push RCL's performance to 75%+.

Optimize RCL Strategy →

Why Analyze RCL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for RCL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, RCL historically offers an average upside of +2.87% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 RCL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 56.0%, RCL shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show RCL performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.08%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.