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OLLI Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 8 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-06-08 → 2024-08-29

⚠️ Small sample size (8 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Common Stock RETAIL-VARIETY STORES (SIC 5331)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 16, 2015 🔗 www.ollies.com
💰 Market Cap: $6.94B 👥 Employees: 12,800
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc is a retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory. The company sells name brand household related items that consumers use in their everyday lives at prices that are heavily discounted below traditional retailers. It offers customers a broad selection of brand name products, including housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics. It operates stores across the Eastern half of the United States. Its differentiated go-to-market plan is characterized by a fun and engaging treasure hunt shopping experience, compelling customer value proposition, and witty, humorous in-store signage and advertising campaigns.
📊
8
Total Alerts
🎯
62.5%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+0.14%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+4.18%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.68%
Avg Winner: +1.51%
Avg Loser: -2.87%
Best: +3.64%
Worst: -5.62%
Trades: 4/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.03%
Avg Winner: +1.56%
Avg Loser: -3.62%
Best: +4.48%
Worst: -5.79%
Trades: 4/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: +0.14%
Avg Winner: +3.05%
Avg Loser: -4.71%
Best: +5.77%
Worst: -5.76%
Trades: 5/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: +0.42%
Avg Winner: +3.58%
Avg Loser: -4.84%
Best: +6.30%
Worst: -6.30%
Trades: 5/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: -1.36%
Avg Winner: +2.67%
Avg Loser: -8.08%
Best: +4.67%
Worst: -11.49%
Trades: 5/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.18%
Best MFE: +9.20%
Avg Time to MFE: 74 min

On average, OLLI alerts reach +4.18% profit potential within 74 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.44%
Worst MAE: -5.42%
Avg Time to MAE: 4 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.44%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.72:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 8 alerts, OLLI typically reaches +4.18% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 8
Gap Up % 62.5%
Avg Gap +0.08%
Best Gap +1.64%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-VARIETY STORES

How OLLI compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
OLLI: -0.68% Sector: +0.00% -0.68%
EOD Gain
OLLI: -1.36% Sector: -7.17% +5.80%
Avg MFE
OLLI: +4.18% Sector: +1.47% +2.71%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical OLLI alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-08-29 09:29:27 $94.02 -5.62% -5.79% -5.76% -6.30% -7.57% -0.46% -5.05% -2.08% LOSS
2024-03-20 09:27:28 $75.0 +3.64% +0.80% +0.91% +1.48% +1.72% +4.00% -1.33% -0.48% WIN
2023-08-31 09:28:00 $75.36 +1.03% +4.48% +5.77% +6.30% +2.28% +7.40% +0.25% +0.85% WIN
2023-06-07 09:27:00 $60.51 +0.64% +0.83% +3.91% +1.01% +0.91% +5.39% -1.18% +1.64% WIN
2023-03-22 09:28:00 $61.66 -3.42% -5.21% -4.72% -4.70% -5.17% +3.19% -5.42% +0.28% LOSS
2022-12-07 09:25:00 $53.85 -2.15% -3.10% -3.64% -3.52% -11.49% +0.28% -3.06% +0.28% LOSS
2022-09-01 09:25:00 $52.84 -0.30% -0.38% +1.78% +3.92% +3.75% +4.47% -1.27% +0.19% LOSS
2022-06-08 09:25:00 $51.0 +0.74% +0.15% +2.90% +5.20% +4.67% +9.20% -2.45% -0.02% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 62.5% Baseline on OLLI

The 62.5% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push OLLI's performance to 75%+.

Optimize OLLI Strategy →

Why Analyze OLLI with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for OLLI. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, OLLI historically offers an average upside of +4.18% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 OLLI Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 62.5%, OLLI shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show OLLI performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.14%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.