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OLPX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 9 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-10-19 → 2023-12-01

⚠️ Small sample size (9 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Sep 30, 2021 🔗 www.olaplex.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.04B 👥 Employees: 231
Olaplex Holdings Inc is a science-enabled, technology-driven beauty company. It offers science-backed solutions that improve hair health. It identifies the majority of consumers' relevant haircare concerns in collaboration with the community of professional hairstylists and consumers and strives to address them through its proprietary technology and innovation capabilities. It offers products through an omnichannel platform that serves professional, specialty retail, and DTC channels. The company derives its revenue through the sale of its hair care products. The company generates the majority of revenue from Professional sales channels followed by Specialty Retail and then DTC. Geographically the company generates the majority of its revenue from the International market.
📊
9
Total Alerts
🎯
55.6%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
+0.57%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+7.47%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -0.41%
Avg Winner: +1.99%
Avg Loser: -2.33%
Best: +4.26%
Worst: -3.36%
Trades: 4/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: +0.57%
Avg Winner: +4.21%
Avg Loser: -3.97%
Best: +8.81%
Worst: -5.42%
Trades: 5/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: +1.61%
Avg Winner: +6.88%
Avg Loser: -3.27%
Best: +12.08%
Worst: -4.09%
Trades: 4/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: +0.53%
Avg Winner: +3.80%
Avg Loser: -3.55%
Best: +8.05%
Worst: -6.08%
Trades: 5/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.85%
Avg Winner: +8.28%
Avg Loser: -5.42%
Best: +11.38%
Worst: -18.15%
Trades: 3/6

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +7.47%
Best MFE: +18.97%
Avg Time to MFE: 89 min

On average, OLPX alerts reach +7.47% profit potential within 89 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.19%
Worst MAE: -7.24%
Avg Time to MAE: 6 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.19%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.41:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.41x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 9 alerts, OLPX typically reaches +7.47% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 9
Gap Up % 22.2%
Avg Gap -0.18%
Best Gap +1.37%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PERFUMES, COSMETICS & OTHER TOILET PREPARATIONS

How OLPX compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
OLPX: -0.41% Sector: -0.23% -0.18%
EOD Gain
OLPX: -0.85% Sector: +353.74% -354.59%
Avg MFE
OLPX: +7.47% Sector: +2.47% +5.00%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical OLPX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-12-01 09:27:00 $2.49 +1.20% -5.42% -3.15% -3.41% -5.62% +2.80% -1.00% -0.80% WIN
2023-11-07 09:28:00 $1.76 +4.26% +8.81% +10.32% +1.99% -1.70% +15.34% -2.27% +0.57% WIN
2023-08-08 09:25:00 $2.9 -3.28% -5.34% -3.28% +2.06% +11.38% +18.97% -7.24% - LOSS
2023-06-09 09:26:00 $3.66 +1.09% +0.68% - +1.09% -3.01% +1.64% -1.09% +1.37% WIN
2023-03-16 09:27:00 $3.83 -1.31% +1.04% +1.70% -0.13% +3.39% +3.39% -2.35% -1.31% LOSS
2023-02-28 09:25:00 $4.47 -3.36% +8.50% +12.08% +8.05% +10.07% +14.54% -3.58% -0.56% LOSS
2022-10-24 09:25:00 $4.05 -0.99% -1.73% -2.56% -4.57% -0.74% +0.25% - -0.25% LOSS
2022-10-20 09:25:00 $4.23 +1.41% +2.01% +3.43% +5.79% -3.31% +7.80% -0.24% -0.24% WIN
2022-10-19 09:25:00 $5.18 -2.70% -3.38% -4.09% -6.08% -18.15% +2.51% -1.93% -0.39% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 55.6% Baseline on OLPX

The 55.6% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push OLPX's performance to 75%+.

Optimize OLPX Strategy →

Why Analyze OLPX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for OLPX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, OLPX historically offers an average upside of +7.47% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 OLPX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 55.6%, OLPX shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show OLPX performs best on the 15MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.57%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.