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PAG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 1 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-12-29 → 2023-12-29

⚠️ Small sample size (1 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 23, 1996 🔗 www.penskeautomotive.com
💰 Market Cap: $10.50B 👥 Employees: 28,900
Penske Automotive Group operates in 19 US states and overseas. It has over 150 US and Puerto Rico light-vehicle stores as well as 210 franchised dealerships overseas, primarily in the United Kingdom but also in Australia, Germany, Italy, and Japan. The company is the third-largest US publicly traded dealership in terms of light-vehicle revenue and sells more than 40 brands, with over 90% of retail automotive revenue coming from luxury and import names. Other segments are service and finance and insurance. The firm's Premier Truck Group owns 45 truck dealerships selling mostly Freightliner and Western Star brands, and Penske owns 16 used-vehicle stores, mostly in the US and UK under the CarShop (US) and Sytner Select (UK) brands. Penske is based in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan.
📊
1
Total Alerts
🎯
0.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.48%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
-0.05%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.48%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.48%
Best: -0.48%
Worst: -0.48%
Trades: 0/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.36%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.36%
Best: -0.36%
Worst: -0.36%
Trades: 0/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.76%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.76%
Best: -0.76%
Worst: -0.76%
Trades: 0/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: -0.05%
Best MFE: -0.05%
Avg Time to MFE: 40 min

On average, PAG alerts reach -0.05% profit potential within 40 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.48%
Worst MAE: -0.48%
Avg Time to MAE: 3 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.48%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.1:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 1 alerts, PAG typically reaches -0.05% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around -0.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 1
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.48%
Best Gap -0.48%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-AUTO DEALERS & GASOLINE STATIONS

How PAG compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PAG: +0.00% Sector: -0.27% +0.27%
EOD Gain
PAG: +0.00% Sector: +3463.44% -3463.44%
Avg MFE
PAG: +0.00% Sector: +5.90% -5.90%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PAG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-12-29 09:27:00 $161.74 -0.48% - - -0.36% -0.76% -0.05% -0.48% -0.48% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ PAG Shows Negative Expectancy

With 0.0% win rate and -0.48% average gain, PAG alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider PAG for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze PAG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PAG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PAG historically offers an average upside of -0.05% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PAG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 0.0%, PAG shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests PAG may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: PAG shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.48%). This suggests PAG is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.