FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

PCAR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 34 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-26 → 2025-02-03

⚠️ Small sample size (34 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 01, 1972 🔗 www.paccar.com
💰 Market Cap: $64.07B 👥 Employees: 30,100
Paccar is a leading manufacturer of medium- and heavy-duty trucks under the premium nameplates Kenworth and Peterbilt, which are primarily sold in the Americas and Australia, and DAF, which primarily services Europe and South America. The trucks segment (74% sales) goes to market through a network of 2,200 independent dealers. Paccar maintains an internal finance subsidiary that provides retail and wholesale financing for customers and dealers (6% sales). In recent years, Paccar has aggressively expanded its parts business (20% of sales), including engines, axles, and transmissions for its own truck brands as well as independent producers. The company commands approximately 30% of the Class 8 market share in North America and 15% of the heavy-duty market share in Europe.
📊
34
Total Alerts
🎯
44.1%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.12%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+1.00%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 38.2%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.67%
Avg Loser: -0.54%
Best: +1.80%
Worst: -1.54%
Trades: 13/20

15MIN

Win Rate: 44.1%
Avg Gain: -0.12%
Avg Winner: +0.73%
Avg Loser: -0.79%
Best: +2.02%
Worst: -1.48%
Trades: 15/19

30MIN

Win Rate: 32.4%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +1.09%
Avg Loser: -0.72%
Best: +2.30%
Worst: -1.73%
Trades: 11/23

60MIN

Win Rate: 41.2%
Avg Gain: -0.08%
Avg Winner: +1.06%
Avg Loser: -0.88%
Best: +2.85%
Worst: -2.33%
Trades: 14/20

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 35.3%
Avg Gain: -9.88%
Avg Winner: +1.15%
Avg Loser: -15.90%
Best: +2.92%
Worst: -34.38%
Trades: 12/22

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.00%
Best MFE: +4.23%
Avg Time to MFE: 154 min

On average, PCAR alerts reach +1.00% profit potential within 154 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.57%
Worst MAE: -2.30%
Avg Time to MAE: 15 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.57%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.76:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 34 alerts, PCAR typically reaches +1.00% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 34
Gap Up % 38.2%
Avg Gap -0.08%
Best Gap +1.32%

🏭 Sector Comparison: MOTOR VEHICLES & PASSENGER CAR BODIES

How PCAR compares to 11 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PCAR: -0.06% Sector: -0.18% +0.12%
EOD Gain
PCAR: -9.88% Sector: +1047.62% -1057.51%
Avg MFE
PCAR: +1.00% Sector: +2.85% -1.85%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PCAR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-03 09:29:29 $109.25 -0.44% -0.59% -0.41% +0.93% -0.11% +1.78% -1.47% +0.42% LOSS
2024-11-05 09:27:46 $105.0 +0.58% +0.10% +1.80% +2.85% +2.92% +3.46% -0.62% -0.24% WIN
2024-09-26 09:25:11 $99.58 -0.45% +0.51% -0.03% -0.40% -1.78% +0.77% -0.87% -0.44% LOSS
2024-08-12 09:25:02 $93.04 -0.18% -0.59% -1.32% -0.77% -0.94% -0.18% -0.62% -0.58% LOSS
2024-05-24 09:27:55 $108.87 +0.95% +1.58% +0.52% +0.79% +0.51% +1.58% +0.76% +0.78% WIN
2024-05-08 09:28:35 $106.1 -0.12% -0.21% -0.09% +0.33% +0.90% +1.40% -0.50% +0.19% LOSS
2024-04-19 09:29:05 $113.65 -0.37% -0.14% -0.50% -0.99% -2.16% +0.61% -1.01% +0.35% LOSS
2024-02-26 09:28:39 $110.78 +0.50% +0.51% +0.70% +0.75% +1.33% +1.72% -0.29% -0.13% WIN
2023-08-09 09:26:00 $85.88 -0.10% +0.24% -0.06% -0.37% -0.54% +0.58% -0.54% -0.44% LOSS
2023-05-31 09:27:00 $71.13 -0.42% -1.03% -1.73% -2.33% -3.30% -0.28% -0.62% -0.28% LOSS
2023-05-25 09:27:00 $69.78 +0.24% +0.64% +1.51% +1.13% +1.78% +1.88% +0.03% +0.69% WIN
2023-05-10 09:25:00 $73.71 +0.11% -0.75% -1.64% -1.47% -1.87% +0.28% -0.26% -0.18% WIN
2023-03-24 09:29:00 $69.81 -1.30% -1.48% -1.49% -1.00% +0.13% +0.16% -2.18% -0.79% LOSS
2023-03-06 09:26:00 $76.3 - -0.03% -0.07% +0.24% -0.03% +0.43% -0.29% -0.14% -
2023-03-03 09:29:00 $75.57 -0.56% -0.94% -1.07% -0.88% +0.82% +1.03% -1.53% -0.75% LOSS
2023-03-01 09:29:00 $72.0 -0.19% +0.39% +0.40% +0.11% +1.46% +1.56% -0.25% -0.04% LOSS
2023-02-27 09:28:00 $73.18 -1.43% -1.40% -0.74% -1.02% -1.46% -0.51% -0.57% -0.53% LOSS
2023-02-22 09:25:00 $74.11 -0.09% -0.28% -0.07% -0.09% -1.36% +1.17% -0.12% +0.16% LOSS
2023-02-21 09:28:00 $75.0 +0.40% +0.58% -0.39% -0.55% -1.52% +0.84% +0.29% +0.48% WIN
2023-02-06 09:25:00 $109.52 +0.56% +0.44% +0.63% +0.37% +0.84% +1.17% +0.06% +0.41% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ PCAR Shows Negative Expectancy

With 44.1% win rate and -0.12% average gain, PCAR alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider PCAR for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze PCAR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PCAR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PCAR historically offers an average upside of +1.00% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PCAR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 44.1%, PCAR shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests PCAR may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: PCAR shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.12%). This suggests PCAR is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.