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PGY Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 167 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-06-29 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares FINANCE SERVICES (SIC 6199)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 23, 2022 🔗 www.pagaya.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.75B 👥 Employees: 531
Pagaya Technologies Ltd is a financial technology company working to reshape the lending marketplace by using machine learning, data analytics, and sophisticated AI-driven credit and analysis technology. It was built to provide a comprehensive solution to enable the credit industry to deliver customers a positive experience while simultaneously enhancing the broader credit ecosystem. Its proprietary API seamlessly integrates into its next-gen infrastructure network of partners to deliver a premium customer user experience and greater access to credit. The company generates majority of its revenue from United States.
📊
167
Total Alerts
🎯
77.8%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+679.79%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+6.04%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 32.5%
Avg Gain: -0.83%
Avg Winner: +2.06%
Avg Loser: -2.39%
Best: +5.75%
Worst: -10.35%
Trades: 54/104

15MIN

Win Rate: 36.4%
Avg Gain: -1.13%
Avg Winner: +2.49%
Avg Loser: -3.30%
Best: +12.80%
Worst: -14.32%
Trades: 60/102

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.7%
Avg Gain: -1.24%
Avg Winner: +3.62%
Avg Loser: -3.92%
Best: +13.04%
Worst: -17.20%
Trades: 56/104

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.7%
Avg Gain: -1.30%
Avg Winner: +4.61%
Avg Loser: -4.39%
Best: +24.04%
Worst: -26.38%
Trades: 56/108

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 77.8%
Avg Gain: +679.79%
Avg Winner: +874.90%
Avg Loser: -6.05%
Best: +1665.20%
Worst: -20.21%
Trades: 130/35

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +6.04%
Best MFE: +89.46%
Avg Time to MFE: 90 min

On average, PGY alerts reach +6.04% profit potential within 90 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.99%
Worst MAE: -19.07%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.99%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.02:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.02x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 167 alerts, PGY typically reaches +6.04% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 167
Gap Up % 28.1%
Avg Gap -0.47%
Best Gap +5.38%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FINANCE SERVICES

How PGY compares to 51 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PGY: -0.77% Sector: -0.22% -0.55%
EOD Gain
PGY: +676.92% Sector: +101.11% +575.81%
Avg MFE
PGY: +6.09% Sector: +5.23% +0.87%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PGY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:27:57 $14.49 -4.69% -2.76% -2.38% -0.55% +6.07% +6.14% -6.83% -0.55% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:28:46 $13.68 +3.80% +10.56% +5.81% +1.17% +7.02% +11.70% -4.17% -0.58% WIN
2025-02-12 09:25:52 $10.76 +3.35% +11.42% +11.37% +10.22% +9.48% +13.38% -0.46% +0.60% WIN
2025-02-11 09:28:04 $13.28 -3.43% -1.15% -1.24% -1.36% -14.80% +0.90% +0.53% +0.15% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:26:44 $13.32 -3.04% -1.73% -4.80% -3.24% -2.33% +0.30% +0.08% -2.40% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:29:02 $12.22 +3.95% +2.70% +1.96% +2.21% +2.29% +5.40% -3.03% -0.49% WIN
2025-02-06 09:27:46 $11.0 +4.18% +2.27% +1.36% +1.00% +0.64% +6.91% -0.27% -0.27% WIN
2025-02-03 09:29:21 $8.92 -1.14% +0.34% +3.36% +5.61% +5.94% +8.74% -2.01% - LOSS
2025-01-10 09:26:13 $8.69 -1.27% -0.58% +0.12% +0.43% +0.92% +1.38% -3.91% -0.23% LOSS
2024-12-30 09:28:40 $9.29 -1.72% -2.37% -3.23% -2.91% +2.37% +3.55% -3.77% -0.43% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:28:25 $8.71 -0.69% +1.03% +1.49% +3.10% +2.76% +4.05% -1.84% -0.11% LOSS
2024-12-11 09:27:56 $10.01 -1.80% -4.64% -3.60% -3.82% -2.20% +0.20% -0.60% -1.00% LOSS
2024-12-09 09:25:37 $10.92 -1.60% -2.66% -3.75% -2.81% -6.14% +0.64% -2.66% -0.37% LOSS
2024-11-18 09:28:54 $8.87 +0.79% -0.11% -1.35% +1.03% -3.33% +2.93% -0.34% -0.11% WIN
2024-11-13 09:25:04 $11.25 +1.78% -0.98% -4.80% -6.21% -9.51% +3.20% -1.69% -0.53% WIN
2024-11-12 09:28:54 $12.06 -6.14% -7.96% -1.95% -5.90% -9.78% +1.74% -9.73% +1.74% LOSS
2024-11-11 09:27:59 $15.49 -0.90% +0.84% +5.42% +8.65% +9.04% +11.04% -3.49% -2.26% LOSS
2024-09-27 09:28:38 $9.88 +5.57% +2.73% +4.50% +4.81% +0.81% +5.87% -0.69% -0.61% WIN
2024-09-26 09:26:40 $10.5 -3.05% -6.33% -4.27% -4.57% -8.10% -0.22% -2.19% -0.29% LOSS
2024-08-09 09:28:52 $16.2 -4.01% -14.32% -10.37% -13.58% -12.22% +0.62% -6.17% +0.31% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 77.8% Baseline on PGY

The 77.8% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push PGY's performance to 75%+.

Optimize PGY Strategy →

Why Analyze PGY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PGY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PGY historically offers an average upside of +6.04% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PGY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 77.8%, PGY shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show PGY performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +679.79%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.