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PGYWW Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-07-27 → 2023-02-15

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Warrants FINANCE SERVICES (SIC 6199)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 23, 2022 🔗 www.pagaya.com
👥 Employees: 531
Pagaya Technologies Ltd is a financial technology company working to reshape the lending marketplace by using machine learning, data analytics, and sophisticated AI-driven credit and analysis technology. It was built to provide a comprehensive solution to enable the credit industry to deliver customers a positive experience while simultaneously enhancing the broader credit ecosystem. Its proprietary API seamlessly integrates into its next-gen infrastructure network of partners to deliver a premium customer user experience and greater access to credit. The company generates majority of its revenue from United States.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-2.04%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+7.53%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -7.27%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -7.27%
Best: -3.82%
Worst: -10.71%
Trades: 0/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -12.84%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -12.84%
Best: -9.16%
Worst: -17.90%
Trades: 0/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -12.23%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -12.23%
Best: -6.44%
Worst: -20.00%
Trades: 0/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -2.04%
Avg Winner: +8.70%
Avg Loser: -12.79%
Best: +8.70%
Worst: -12.79%
Trades: 1/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -7.31%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -7.31%
Best: -4.81%
Worst: -10.10%
Trades: 0/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +7.53%
Best MFE: +11.57%
Avg Time to MFE: 63 min

On average, PGYWW alerts reach +7.53% profit potential within 63 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -12.99%
Worst MAE: -22.50%
Avg Time to MAE: 35 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 12.99%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.58:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, PGYWW typically reaches +7.53% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 33.3%
Avg Gap -9.40%
Best Gap +0.03%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FINANCE SERVICES

How PGYWW compares to 51 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PGYWW: -7.27% Sector: -0.22% -7.05%
EOD Gain
PGYWW: -5.92% Sector: +101.11% -107.03%
Avg MFE
PGYWW: +11.30% Sector: +5.23% +6.07%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PGYWW alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-02-15 09:27:00 $0.13 -10.71% -9.16% -6.44% +8.70% -4.81% +11.02% -12.66% -10.71% LOSS
2022-12-29 09:25:00 $0.1 - -17.90% -20.00% - -10.10% - -22.50% -17.50% -
2022-07-27 09:25:00 $0.78 -3.82% -11.45% -10.23% -12.79% -7.03% +11.57% -3.82% +0.03% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ PGYWW Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -2.04% average gain, PGYWW alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider PGYWW for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze PGYWW with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PGYWW. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PGYWW historically offers an average upside of +7.53% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PGYWW Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, PGYWW shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests PGYWW may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: PGYWW shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -2.04%). This suggests PGYWW is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.