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REVG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-06-08 → 2024-04-01

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jan 27, 2017 🔗 www.revgroup.com
💰 Market Cap: $3.27B 👥 Employees: 5,700
REV Group Inc is a U.S.-based designer, manufacturer, and distributor of specialty vehicles and related aftermarket parts and services, operating through two segments: Specialty Vehicles and Recreational Vehicles. The Specialty Vehicles segment includes fire apparatus, ambulances, terminal trucks, and sweepers sold under brands such as E-One, Ferrara, KME, Spartan ER, AEV, Horton, Leader, Road Rescue, Wheeled Coach, Capacity, and LayMor. The Recreational Vehicles segment includes American Coach, Fleetwood RV, Holiday Rambler, Renegade RV, and Midwest Automotive Designs, offering Class A, B, C, and Super C motorized RVs and products from Goldshield Fiberglass. The majority of revenue is generated from the Specialty Vehicles segment.
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
40.0%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-1.23%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+2.42%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -0.47%
Avg Winner: +0.62%
Avg Loser: -0.74%
Best: +0.62%
Worst: -1.18%
Trades: 1/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -1.48%
Avg Winner: +1.78%
Avg Loser: -2.30%
Best: +1.78%
Worst: -4.14%
Trades: 1/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -1.07%
Avg Winner: +1.57%
Avg Loser: -1.73%
Best: +1.57%
Worst: -2.64%
Trades: 1/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -0.60%
Avg Winner: +0.93%
Avg Loser: -0.99%
Best: +0.93%
Worst: -2.06%
Trades: 1/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -1.23%
Avg Winner: +2.12%
Avg Loser: -5.19%
Best: +2.87%
Worst: -8.49%
Trades: 2/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.42%
Best MFE: +3.82%
Avg Time to MFE: 117 min

On average, REVG alerts reach +2.42% profit potential within 117 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.54%
Worst MAE: -3.94%
Avg Time to MAE: 8 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.54%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.95:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, REVG typically reaches +2.42% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 40.0%
Avg Gap +0.07%
Best Gap +1.71%

🏭 Sector Comparison: MOTOR VEHICLES & PASSENGER CAR BODIES

How REVG compares to 11 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
REVG: -0.47% Sector: -0.18% -0.29%
EOD Gain
REVG: -1.23% Sector: +1047.62% -1048.85%
Avg MFE
REVG: +2.42% Sector: +2.85% -0.43%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical REVG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-04-01 09:27:22 $22.35 -0.67% -1.79% -2.64% -2.06% -1.88% -0.13% -1.16% -1.16% LOSS
2024-03-14 09:25:47 $18.33 -0.55% -1.73% -1.75% -1.09% +1.36% +3.82% -3.11% -0.05% LOSS
2024-02-15 09:26:26 $17.75 +0.62% -1.52% -1.80% -0.23% +2.87% +3.21% -3.94% -0.23% WIN
2023-09-13 09:26:00 $13.99 -0.56% +1.78% +1.57% +0.93% - +3.50% -3.79% +0.07% LOSS
2023-06-08 09:29:00 $14.01 -1.18% -4.14% -0.72% -0.57% -8.49% +1.71% -0.71% +1.71% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ REVG Shows Negative Expectancy

With 40.0% win rate and -1.23% average gain, REVG alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider REVG for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze REVG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for REVG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, REVG historically offers an average upside of +2.42% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 REVG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 40.0%, REVG shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests REVG may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: REVG shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -1.23%). This suggests REVG is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.