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ULCC Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 10 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-07 → 2025-02-07

⚠️ Small sample size (10 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED (SIC 4512)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Apr 01, 2021 🔗 www.flyfrontier.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.20B 👥 Employees: 7,535
Frontier Group Holdings Inc is an ultra-low-cost carrier whose business is focused on Low Fares Done Right. The company owns a fleet of 120 Airbus single-aisle aircraft, consisting of 13 A320ceos, 82 A320neos, 21 A321ceos and 4 A321neos. The use of these aircraft, their seating configuration, weight-saving tactics, and baggage process have all contributed to the ability to continue to be the fuel-efficient of all the U.S. The Company is managed as a single business unit that provides air transportation for passengers. Majority of revenue is from Domestic flight follow by International.
📊
10
Total Alerts
🎯
70.0%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+2.33%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+5.69%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: +0.26%
Avg Winner: +2.44%
Avg Loser: -1.20%
Best: +7.17%
Worst: -2.14%
Trades: 4/6

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.54%
Avg Winner: +3.48%
Avg Loser: -2.41%
Best: +8.82%
Worst: -5.64%
Trades: 5/5

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.36%
Avg Winner: +3.30%
Avg Loser: -3.23%
Best: +9.65%
Worst: -6.11%
Trades: 5/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.49%
Avg Winner: +4.17%
Avg Loser: -3.18%
Best: +8.92%
Worst: -8.46%
Trades: 5/5

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 70.0%
Avg Gain: +2.33%
Avg Winner: +5.34%
Avg Loser: -4.69%
Best: +14.34%
Worst: -9.32%
Trades: 7/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.69%
Best MFE: +17.46%
Avg Time to MFE: 153 min

On average, ULCC alerts reach +5.69% profit potential within 153 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.84%
Worst MAE: -3.68%
Avg Time to MAE: 6 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.84%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.1:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.1x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 10 alerts, ULCC typically reaches +5.69% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 10
Gap Up % 30.0%
Avg Gap -0.18%
Best Gap +1.10%

🏭 Sector Comparison: AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED

How ULCC compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ULCC: +0.26% Sector: -0.01% +0.27%
EOD Gain
ULCC: +2.33% Sector: -0.10% +2.43%
Avg MFE
ULCC: +5.69% Sector: +1.90% +3.79%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ULCC alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-07 09:28:34 $9.28 -1.09% -1.19% +0.38% +2.05% +0.65% +4.20% -3.00% +0.22% LOSS
2024-02-06 09:29:47 $5.44 +7.17% +8.82% +9.65% +8.92% +14.34% +17.46% -0.18% +1.10% WIN
2023-12-04 09:28:00 $4.3 -1.28% +3.72% +1.86% +1.05% +3.02% +4.88% -2.56% - LOSS
2023-09-13 09:28:00 $5.74 -1.39% -2.00% -3.66% -2.61% -2.53% - -2.61% -1.05% LOSS
2022-08-01 09:25:00 $14.31 +1.54% -0.45% -1.61% -3.28% -2.24% +2.66% -0.56% -0.03% WIN
2022-05-16 09:25:00 $9.0 +0.11% +1.72% +1.61% +3.67% +2.56% +4.50% -1.22% -0.56% WIN
2022-04-06 09:25:00 $11.7 -2.14% -5.64% -6.11% -8.46% -9.32% -0.09% -0.17% -1.20% LOSS
2022-03-08 09:25:00 $9.79 -0.51% -2.76% -1.53% -0.51% +1.74% +6.03% -3.17% -0.41% LOSS
2022-02-24 09:25:00 $11.58 -0.78% +1.38% +3.02% +5.18% +12.44% +13.04% -1.21% -0.22% LOSS
2022-02-07 09:25:00 $12.49 +0.96% +1.76% - -1.04% +2.64% +4.24% -3.68% +0.32% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 70.0% Baseline on ULCC

The 70.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push ULCC's performance to 75%+.

Optimize ULCC Strategy →

Why Analyze ULCC with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ULCC. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ULCC historically offers an average upside of +5.69% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ULCC Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 70.0%, ULCC shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show ULCC performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +2.33%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.