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URBN Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 9 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-11 → 2024-11-27

⚠️ Small sample size (9 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Nov 17, 1993 🔗 www.urbn.com
💰 Market Cap: $6.04B 👥 Employees: 29,000
Founded in 1970, Philadelphia-based Urban Outfitters is a multibrand apparel and home goods retailer that operates nearly 800 stores and e-commerce in the United States, which accounts for about 87% of sales, and other regions. Its retail nameplates are Urban Outfitters (23% of fiscal 2025 sales), Free People/Movement (26%), and Anthropologie (44%). Retail accounted for 88% of fiscal 2025 revenue, but Urban Outfitters also sells products through a wholesale operation, owns some restaurants, and operates a fast-growing clothing rental and resale business called Nuuly (7% of sales). Urban Outfitters primarily markets to young adults and offers products in categories such as apparel (66% of sales), home goods (16% of sales), accessories (13% of sales), and more.
📊
9
Total Alerts
🎯
66.7%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+1.75%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+5.23%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: +0.48%
Avg Winner: +1.76%
Avg Loser: -1.51%
Best: +3.47%
Worst: -2.19%
Trades: 5/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: +0.80%
Avg Winner: +3.35%
Avg Loser: -2.40%
Best: +6.66%
Worst: -3.92%
Trades: 5/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: +0.44%
Avg Winner: +3.01%
Avg Loser: -2.78%
Best: +6.91%
Worst: -4.86%
Trades: 5/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +1.75%
Avg Winner: +4.35%
Avg Loser: -3.46%
Best: +13.15%
Worst: -4.56%
Trades: 6/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +2.86%
Avg Winner: +5.70%
Avg Loser: -2.81%
Best: +16.69%
Worst: -6.05%
Trades: 6/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.23%
Best MFE: +17.85%
Avg Time to MFE: 115 min

On average, URBN alerts reach +5.23% profit potential within 115 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.13%
Worst MAE: -2.58%
Avg Time to MAE: 2 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.13%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

4.62:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 4.62x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 9 alerts, URBN typically reaches +5.23% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 9
Gap Up % 55.6%
Avg Gap +0.20%
Best Gap +0.95%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-FAMILY CLOTHING STORES

How URBN compares to 10 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
URBN: +0.48% Sector: +0.15% +0.32%
EOD Gain
URBN: +2.86% Sector: +0.90% +1.96%
Avg MFE
URBN: +5.23% Sector: +3.72% +1.52%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical URBN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-27 09:27:59 $45.73 -1.81% -0.68% -1.24% +1.02% +3.85% +5.10% -2.58% -0.35% LOSS
2024-08-22 09:28:55 $35.3 +1.50% +4.93% +4.09% +5.01% +6.26% +8.95% -0.28% +0.20% WIN
2024-05-22 09:25:27 $41.96 -0.52% -3.92% -4.86% -4.56% -6.05% +0.52% -2.26% -0.38% LOSS
2024-04-17 09:28:45 $36.46 +0.97% +0.55% +1.04% +1.37% +1.67% +2.39% +0.27% +0.55% WIN
2023-09-25 09:28:00 $30.35 +0.97% +2.54% +2.57% +3.99% +4.61% +5.57% -0.99% +0.76% WIN
2023-08-23 09:26:00 $35.68 -2.19% -2.77% -1.54% -1.70% -1.54% +0.87% -2.58% -0.36% LOSS
2023-05-24 09:28:00 $31.61 +1.90% -2.21% -3.48% -4.11% -0.82% +2.69% -1.77% -0.38% WIN
2022-05-25 09:25:00 $17.8 +3.47% +6.66% +6.91% +13.15% +16.69% +17.85% - +0.84% WIN
2022-01-11 09:25:00 $28.4 - +2.08% +0.46% +1.58% +1.09% +3.17% - +0.95% -

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 66.7% Baseline on URBN

The 66.7% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push URBN's performance to 75%+.

Optimize URBN Strategy →

Why Analyze URBN with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for URBN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, URBN historically offers an average upside of +5.23% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 URBN Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, URBN shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show URBN performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +1.75%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.