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WALD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-07-07 → 2022-10-13

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Waldencast plc Class A Ordinary Share PERFUMES, COSMETICS & OTHER TOILET PREPARATIONS (SIC 2844)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: May 10, 2021 🔗 www.waldencast.com
💰 Market Cap: $215.7M 👥 Employees: 332
Waldencast PLC is a beauty and wellness operating platform. The company is organized into two reportable segments namely Obagi Skincare and Milk Makeup. The company generates the majority of its revenue from the Obagi Medical segment. The Obagi Medical segment is engaged in developing, marketing, and selling skin health products. The Milk Makeup segment includes developing, marketing, and selling cosmetics, skincare, and other beauty products. Geographically the company generates the majority of its revenue from North America region.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.75%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
-1.17%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.75%
Avg Winner: +0.10%
Avg Loser: -1.61%
Best: +0.10%
Worst: -1.61%
Trades: 1/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -5.93%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -5.93%
Best: -2.14%
Worst: -9.71%
Trades: 0/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -4.38%
Avg Winner: +0.10%
Avg Loser: -6.63%
Best: +0.10%
Worst: -7.43%
Trades: 1/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -5.22%
Avg Winner: +0.10%
Avg Loser: -7.89%
Best: +0.10%
Worst: -9.83%
Trades: 1/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -4.39%
Avg Winner: +0.10%
Avg Loser: -6.63%
Best: +0.10%
Worst: -9.84%
Trades: 1/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: -1.17%
Best MFE: +0.20%
Avg Time to MFE: 67 min

On average, WALD alerts reach -1.17% profit potential within 67 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -5.31%
Worst MAE: -14.29%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 5.31%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.22:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, WALD typically reaches -1.17% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around -0.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.17%
Best Gap -0.05%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PERFUMES, COSMETICS & OTHER TOILET PREPARATIONS

How WALD compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
WALD: -1.61% Sector: -0.23% -1.38%
EOD Gain
WALD: -9.84% Sector: +353.74% -363.58%
Avg MFE
WALD: -0.28% Sector: +2.47% -2.76%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical WALD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2022-10-13 09:25:00 $8.75 - -9.71% -7.43% -9.83% -3.43% -3.43% -14.29% - -
2022-07-21 09:25:00 $9.96 -1.61% -2.14% -5.82% -5.94% -9.84% -0.28% -1.61% -0.28% LOSS
2022-07-07 09:25:00 $9.94 +0.10% - +0.10% +0.10% +0.10% +0.20% -0.05% -0.05% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ WALD Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.75% average gain, WALD alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider WALD for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze WALD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for WALD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, WALD historically offers an average upside of -1.17% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 WALD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, WALD shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests WALD may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: WALD shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.75%). This suggests WALD is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.