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XPO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 7 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-09 → 2024-05-03

⚠️ Small sample size (7 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jul 26, 2002 🔗 www.xpo.com
💰 Market Cap: $17.29B 👥 Employees: 38,000
Following the spinoff of its contract logistics division (GXO) in 2021 and freight brokerage operations (RXO) in 2022, XPO is moving closer to becoming a pure-play asset-based less-than-truckload carrier. We estimate LTL shipping makes up 60% of total revenue, with XPO's European truckload and LTL operations making up 40%. However, XPO's LTL segment EBITDA mix is much higher than 60%. We believe XPO intends to divest its European trucking division once it finds the right buyer.
📊
7
Total Alerts
🎯
71.4%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.82%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.84%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 71.4%
Avg Gain: +0.82%
Avg Winner: +1.73%
Avg Loser: -1.46%
Best: +3.09%
Worst: -2.41%
Trades: 5/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: +0.72%
Avg Winner: +2.54%
Avg Loser: -1.71%
Best: +3.94%
Worst: -4.15%
Trades: 4/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: +0.07%
Avg Winner: +1.62%
Avg Loser: -2.00%
Best: +3.54%
Worst: -4.74%
Trades: 4/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: +0.37%
Avg Winner: +2.46%
Avg Loser: -2.41%
Best: +4.58%
Worst: -5.39%
Trades: 4/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -5.75%
Avg Winner: +4.94%
Avg Loser: -13.77%
Best: +6.33%
Worst: -41.39%
Trades: 3/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.84%
Best MFE: +6.52%
Avg Time to MFE: 159 min

On average, XPO alerts reach +2.84% profit potential within 159 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.69%
Worst MAE: -1.80%
Avg Time to MAE: 2 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.69%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

4.11:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 4.11x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 7 alerts, XPO typically reaches +2.84% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 7
Gap Up % 57.1%
Avg Gap +0.32%
Best Gap +2.58%

🏭 Sector Comparison: TRANSPORTATION SERVICES

How XPO compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
XPO: +0.82% Sector: -0.21% +1.03%
EOD Gain
XPO: -5.75% Sector: +900.40% -906.15%
Avg MFE
XPO: +2.84% Sector: +3.46% -0.62%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical XPO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-05-03 09:28:39 $124.77 -2.41% -4.15% -4.74% -5.39% -9.79% -1.42% -1.42% -2.22% LOSS
2023-09-12 09:29:00 $72.21 -0.50% +0.19% +0.37% +0.76% -0.57% +1.83% -1.05% -1.01% LOSS
2023-04-21 09:28:00 $42.68 +2.62% +2.41% +3.54% +4.58% +3.14% +4.94% -0.42% +0.28% WIN
2023-04-20 09:25:00 $38.36 +3.09% +3.94% +1.29% +2.03% +6.33% +6.52% -0.03% +2.58% WIN
2022-08-12 09:25:00 $57.07 +1.86% +3.64% +1.27% +2.47% +5.34% +5.47% -0.11% +2.17% WIN
2022-04-14 09:25:00 $58.75 +0.07% -0.79% -0.78% -0.89% -3.35% +0.83% - +0.41% WIN
2022-03-09 09:25:00 $71.0 +1.00% -0.20% -0.48% -0.94% -41.39% +1.69% -1.80% - WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 71.4% Baseline on XPO

The 71.4% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push XPO's performance to 75%+.

Optimize XPO Strategy →

Why Analyze XPO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for XPO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, XPO historically offers an average upside of +2.84% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 XPO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 71.4%, XPO shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show XPO performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.82%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.