$HIMS seeking alpha Aug 22, 2026

$HIMS +5.85% — what the base rate says

The Boss FILTRIX Market Desk

$AAOI plunged -13.01% into the weekend on zero filed catalyst. When a stock suffers a no-news gap-down of 10% or more, historical data across 6,903 similar setups shows it closes red 53% of the time. In $AAOI's own history, 14 prior gap-down days resulted in a red finish 57% of the time.

Flip side: $MRK pushed +2.80% on verified Phase 3 cancer vaccine trial results with Moderna. Real data creates durable structure; ghost volume creates trapped capital.

57% fade probability on the unprompted dump. That is the baseline.

What the data showed

$HIMS +5.85% Hims & Hers Health, Inc. mcap $7.3B · float 206M shares · sector: SERVICES-OFFICES & CLINICS OF DOCTORS OF MEDICINE
$TSLA +5.44% Tesla, Inc. mcap $1386.8B · float 2.9B shares · sector: MOTOR VEHICLES & PASSENGER CAR BODIES
$VCRE +4.17% Vicore Pharma Holding AB (publ
$GDX +2.98% VanEck Gold Miners ETF
$MRK +2.80% Merck & Co., Inc. mcap $375.5B · float 2.5B shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
$BREZR +2.22% Breeze Acquisition Corp. II RT EXP 030331
$GLD +1.95% SPDR Gold Shares ETF float 231M shares · sector: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS
$WBD +1.84% Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. mcap $71.5B · float 2.4B shares · sector: CABLE & OTHER PAY TELEVISION SERVICES
$V +1.59% Visa Inc. mcap $682.5B · float 1.7B shares · sector: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC
$GOOG +1.17% Alphabet Inc. mcap $4179.0B · float 5.1B shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
$AAOI -13.01% Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903) mcap $10.3B · float 77M shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
$SMXT -9.21% SolarMax Technology, Inc. mcap $18M · float 42M shares · sector: CONSTRUCTION - SPECIAL TRADE CONTRACTORS
$MRVL -5.94% Marvell Technology, Inc. mcap $213.0B · float 868M shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
$ARM -3.00% Arm Holdings plc mcap $267.8B · float 1.1B shares · sector: Semiconductors & Related Devices
$GITS -1.91% Global Interactive Technologies, Inc. mcap $6M · float 3M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
$KAPA -1.73% Kairos Pharma, Ltd. mcap $7M · float 14M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
$PM -1.72% Philip Morris International Inc. mcap $296.0B · float 1.6B shares · sector: CIGARETTES
$MO -1.19% Altria Group, Inc. mcap $110.3B · float 1.7B shares · sector: CIGARETTES
$PSKY -1.15% Paramount Skydance Corporation mcap $11.9B · float 847M shares · sector: TELEVISION BROADCASTING STATIONS
$AAPL -0.52% Apple Inc. mcap $4623.9B · float 14.7B shares · sector: ELECTRONIC COMPUTERS

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