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AMBA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-01 → 2024-11-27

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Ambarella, Inc. Ordinary Shares SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES (SIC 3674)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 10, 2012 🔗 www.ambarella.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.89B 👥 Employees: 364
Ambarella Inc is a developer of semiconductor processing solutions for high-definition video capture, sharing, and display. The firm's solutions are sold to original design manufacturers and original equipment manufacturers to be designed for use in infrastructure broadcast encoders, wearable device cameras, automotive cameras, security cameras, consumer cameras, and industrial and robotic applications. The company's system-on-a-chip designs, based on its proprietary technology platform, are configurable to applications in various end markets. Geographical presence in Taiwan, Asia Pacific, Europe, North America, and the United States. The firm derives the majority of its revenue from Taiwan.
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
40.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.77%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+3.27%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -1.44%
Avg Winner: +2.10%
Avg Loser: -2.33%
Best: +2.10%
Worst: -4.13%
Trades: 1/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.77%
Avg Winner: +2.97%
Avg Loser: -3.27%
Best: +4.40%
Worst: -6.63%
Trades: 2/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -1.82%
Avg Winner: +3.91%
Avg Loser: -5.64%
Best: +5.44%
Worst: -7.54%
Trades: 2/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -2.62%
Avg Winner: +5.64%
Avg Loser: -4.69%
Best: +5.64%
Worst: -7.27%
Trades: 1/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -4.66%
Avg Winner: +3.89%
Avg Loser: -10.35%
Best: +4.95%
Worst: -13.65%
Trades: 2/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.27%
Best MFE: +7.70%
Avg Time to MFE: 97 min

On average, AMBA alerts reach +3.27% profit potential within 97 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.01%
Worst MAE: -2.52%
Avg Time to MAE: 26 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.01%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.62:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, AMBA typically reaches +3.27% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 20.0%
Avg Gap -0.16%
Best Gap +0.23%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

How AMBA compares to 58 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AMBA: -1.44% Sector: -0.04% -1.40%
EOD Gain
AMBA: -4.66% Sector: +13404.08% -13408.74%
Avg MFE
AMBA: +3.27% Sector: +2.71% +0.56%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AMBA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-27 09:29:55 $79.6 -2.64% -0.82% -2.80% -7.07% -8.99% +2.16% -1.62% +0.23% LOSS
2024-08-28 09:25:52 $63.77 -4.13% -2.35% -6.59% -4.26% -8.42% +0.44% -1.52% -0.42% LOSS
2023-08-30 09:27:00 $58.68 -0.39% +4.40% +5.44% +5.64% +2.83% +7.70% -2.52% -0.31% LOSS
2023-05-31 09:29:00 $68.91 +2.10% +1.55% +2.38% -0.16% +4.95% +5.28% -2.02% -0.28% WIN
2022-03-01 09:25:00 $111.15 -2.16% -6.63% -7.54% -7.27% -13.65% +0.75% -2.38% - LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ AMBA Shows Negative Expectancy

With 40.0% win rate and -0.77% average gain, AMBA alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider AMBA for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze AMBA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AMBA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AMBA historically offers an average upside of +3.27% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AMBA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 40.0%, AMBA shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests AMBA may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: AMBA shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.77%). This suggests AMBA is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.