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GCTS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 9 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-03-27 → 2024-08-14

⚠️ Small sample size (9 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc. SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES (SIC 3674)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Mar 27, 2024 🔗 www.gctsemi.com
💰 Market Cap: $56.8M 👥 Employees: 121
GCT Semiconductor Holding Inc is a designer and supplier of 5G and 4G LTE semiconductor solutions. It enabled fast and reliable 4G LTE connectivity to numerous commercial devices such as CPEs, mobile hotspots, routers, M2M applications, and smartphones, etc. The system-on-chip solutions integrate radio frequency, baseband modem, and digital signal processing functions, therefore offering complete 4G and 5G platform solutions with small form factors, low power consumption, high performance, high reliability, and cost-effectiveness.
📊
9
Total Alerts
🎯
11.1%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-3.68%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+44.71%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 11.1%
Avg Gain: -3.68%
Avg Winner: +2.34%
Avg Loser: -4.44%
Best: +2.34%
Worst: -15.01%
Trades: 1/8

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -9.09%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -9.09%
Best: -1.11%
Worst: -23.50%
Trades: 0/9

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -8.65%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -8.65%
Best: -1.58%
Worst: -24.09%
Trades: 0/9

60MIN

Win Rate: 11.1%
Avg Gain: -4.34%
Avg Winner: +29.02%
Avg Loser: -8.50%
Best: +29.02%
Worst: -23.99%
Trades: 1/8

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 11.1%
Avg Gain: +19.99%
Avg Winner: +247.00%
Avg Loser: -8.38%
Best: +247.00%
Worst: -25.55%
Trades: 1/8

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +44.71%
Best MFE: +341.64%
Avg Time to MFE: 105 min

On average, GCTS alerts reach +44.71% profit potential within 105 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -7.89%
Worst MAE: -25.55%
Avg Time to MAE: 17 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 7.89%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

5.67:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 5.67x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 9 alerts, GCTS typically reaches +44.71% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 35.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 9
Gap Up % 33.3%
Avg Gap -1.41%
Best Gap +0.64%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

How GCTS compares to 58 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
GCTS: -3.68% Sector: -0.04% -3.64%
EOD Gain
GCTS: +19.99% Sector: +13404.08% -13384.08%
Avg MFE
GCTS: +44.71% Sector: +2.71% +42.00%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical GCTS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-08-14 09:27:26 $3.64 -0.82% -7.21% -5.22% -2.34% -1.10% +4.40% -7.97% +0.55% LOSS
2024-08-13 09:26:47 $3.88 -4.12% -9.28% -6.96% -6.83% -3.09% +2.58% -2.58% -0.77% LOSS
2024-04-12 09:25:32 $6.33 -2.90% -1.11% -1.58% -3.00% -4.27% +1.90% -5.21% -0.95% LOSS
2024-04-09 09:28:34 $6.49 -4.93% -6.93% -7.24% -6.93% -1.85% +1.39% -9.55% -2.93% LOSS
2024-04-08 09:25:31 $8.29 -2.44% -2.05% -7.84% -15.44% -15.56% -0.48% -1.21% -4.95% LOSS
2024-04-05 09:25:31 $10.96 -1.09% -20.99% -24.09% -23.99% -25.55% +8.58% -1.19% +0.64% LOSS
2024-04-04 09:28:54 $6.53 -15.01% -4.29% -5.82% -5.36% -12.25% +2.14% +0.15% +0.15% LOSS
2024-03-28 09:27:30 $34.22 +2.34% -6.49% -9.41% -4.15% -3.39% +40.27% -17.88% -3.57% WIN
2024-03-27 09:29:36 $12.68 -4.18% -23.50% -9.73% +29.02% +247.00% +341.64% -25.55% -0.87% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ GCTS Shows Negative Expectancy

With 11.1% win rate and -3.68% average gain, GCTS alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider GCTS for short-selling strategies.

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Why Analyze GCTS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for GCTS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, GCTS historically offers an average upside of +44.71% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 GCTS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 11.1%, GCTS shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests GCTS may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: GCTS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -3.68%). This suggests GCTS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.