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LEDS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 6 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-04-07 → 2025-01-21

⚠️ Small sample size (6 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Dec 09, 2010 🔗 www.semileds.com
💰 Market Cap: $15.4M 👥 Employees: 118
SemiLEDs Corp develops, manufactures, and sells light-emitting diode chips and LED components. The company's products include LED Chips, LED Components, and Lighting Products. Its products are used for general lighting applications, including street lights and commercial, industrial, system, and residential lighting; specialty industrial applications, such as ultraviolet, or Ultraviolet, curing of polymers, LED light therapy in medical/cosmetic applications, counterfeit detection, LED lighting for horticulture applications, architectural lighting and entertainment lighting. Substantial revenue is generated from the sale of LED components products. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from Japan.
📊
6
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-1.75%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+7.84%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.75%
Avg Winner: +1.50%
Avg Loser: -5.00%
Best: +1.72%
Worst: -8.28%
Trades: 3/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -3.69%
Avg Winner: +0.94%
Avg Loser: -8.31%
Best: +1.45%
Worst: -18.11%
Trades: 3/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -6.78%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -6.78%
Best: -0.07%
Worst: -20.26%
Trades: 0/6

60MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -6.60%
Avg Winner: +3.61%
Avg Loser: -12.20%
Best: +3.61%
Worst: -20.83%
Trades: 1/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 16.7%
Avg Gain: -8.48%
Avg Winner: +16.67%
Avg Loser: -13.51%
Best: +16.67%
Worst: -22.91%
Trades: 1/5

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +7.84%
Best MFE: +21.74%
Avg Time to MFE: 32 min

On average, LEDS alerts reach +7.84% profit potential within 32 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -4.52%
Worst MAE: -9.69%
Avg Time to MAE: 7 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 4.52%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.74:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 6 alerts, LEDS typically reaches +7.84% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 6
Gap Up % 16.7%
Avg Gap -2.31%
Best Gap +0.57%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

How LEDS compares to 58 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
LEDS: -1.70% Sector: -0.04% -1.66%
EOD Gain
LEDS: -9.60% Sector: +13404.08% -13413.68%
Avg MFE
LEDS: +9.40% Sector: +2.71% +6.70%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical LEDS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-21 09:29:38 $2.27 +1.32% -18.11% -20.26% -20.83% -22.91% +9.25% -9.69% -2.20% WIN
2024-11-12 09:29:33 $1.74 +1.72% +0.86% -0.59% +3.61% -19.54% +11.21% -3.45% +0.57% WIN
2024-11-11 09:28:08 $1.38 +1.45% +1.45% -0.07% - +16.67% +21.74% -4.35% -1.45% WIN
2023-05-26 09:29:00 $2.9 -8.28% -6.55% -11.90% -9.31% -12.07% -1.38% -1.38% -1.38% LOSS
2022-08-03 09:25:00 $4.03 -4.71% +0.50% -5.31% -6.45% -10.17% +6.20% -7.94% -5.71% LOSS
2022-04-07 09:25:00 $3.5 -2.00% -0.29% -2.57% - -2.86% - -0.29% -3.71% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ LEDS Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -1.75% average gain, LEDS alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider LEDS for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze LEDS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for LEDS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, LEDS historically offers an average upside of +7.84% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 LEDS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, LEDS shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests LEDS may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: LEDS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -1.75%). This suggests LEDS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.