Latest signal:
MCHP Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 26 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-20 → 2025-02-07
⚠️ Small sample size (26 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, MCHP alerts reach +2.04% profit potential within 140 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.82%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.49x the typical drawdown.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 26 alerts, MCHP typically reaches +2.04% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.6% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
🏭 Sector Comparison: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
How MCHP compares to 58 other tickers in the same sector.
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical MCHP alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-07 | 09:25:19 | $51.7 | +1.71% | -0.39% | -0.15% | +0.29% | +0.37% | +3.00% | -1.30% | +1.08% | WIN |
| 2025-01-27 | 09:28:29 | $58.12 | -1.07% | -0.26% | -1.07% | -0.29% | -1.53% | +0.38% | -1.69% | -0.55% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-14 | 09:26:08 | $56.45 | -0.53% | -0.05% | -1.43% | -1.19% | +0.76% | +0.81% | -1.90% | -0.43% | LOSS |
| 2024-12-31 | 09:26:16 | $57.36 | +0.59% | +0.56% | +0.40% | +0.71% | -0.02% | +1.31% | -0.01% | -0.01% | WIN |
| 2024-12-20 | 09:27:44 | $55.42 | +0.47% | +1.41% | +0.63% | +1.12% | +0.16% | +2.98% | -0.27% | +0.81% | WIN |
| 2024-12-16 | 09:25:16 | $58.0 | +1.11% | +1.22% | +2.03% | +1.84% | +1.86% | +2.71% | -0.52% | -0.10% | WIN |
| 2024-12-05 | 09:25:38 | $61.4 | -0.66% | +0.03% | -0.88% | -2.32% | -5.13% | +0.57% | +0.39% | +0.15% | LOSS |
| 2024-12-04 | 09:25:50 | $66.1 | -0.61% | -2.60% | -2.66% | -3.48% | -6.75% | +0.20% | -0.02% | +0.20% | LOSS |
| 2024-11-06 | 09:25:29 | $75.79 | +1.37% | -2.45% | -2.64% | -2.95% | -2.69% | +1.86% | -0.38% | +0.67% | WIN |
| 2024-08-05 | 09:27:11 | $74.9 | -0.36% | +0.03% | +0.29% | -0.32% | -1.39% | +3.14% | -1.40% | +0.53% | LOSS |
| 2024-08-02 | 09:26:26 | $79.0 | -1.30% | -0.71% | -2.80% | -2.53% | -4.52% | +0.95% | -0.03% | +0.57% | LOSS |
| 2024-07-25 | 09:28:17 | $84.85 | -1.66% | -0.75% | -0.39% | +0.35% | +0.21% | +3.64% | -2.25% | -0.25% | LOSS |
| 2024-05-30 | 09:27:31 | $95.56 | +0.36% | +0.25% | +0.41% | +1.00% | +0.81% | +1.38% | -0.07% | +0.04% | WIN |
| 2024-05-22 | 09:28:15 | $98.02 | -0.12% | -0.17% | +0.28% | -0.40% | +1.50% | +1.70% | -0.86% | +0.03% | LOSS |
| 2024-02-02 | 00:00:00 | $82.1 | - | - | - | - | +2.67% | +3.89% | -0.33% | +0.90% | - |
| 2023-12-14 | 09:29:00 | $90.88 | +0.86% | +2.06% | +1.98% | +1.65% | +2.29% | +2.53% | -0.24% | +0.02% | WIN |
| 2023-08-04 | 09:27:00 | $84.85 | +0.31% | -1.17% | -2.35% | -1.73% | -1.64% | +2.69% | -0.44% | +1.38% | WIN |
| 2023-05-19 | 09:28:00 | $78.13 | -0.02% | +0.06% | -0.19% | -0.48% | -0.33% | +0.29% | -0.32% | -0.17% | LOSS |
| 2022-11-10 | 09:25:00 | $71.12 | -0.24% | -0.60% | -1.01% | -1.07% | +3.94% | +4.36% | -1.43% | -0.62% | LOSS |
| 2022-08-08 | 09:25:00 | $71.1 | +0.27% | +0.42% | +0.35% | -0.03% | -0.28% | +1.00% | -0.77% | +0.08% | WIN |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ MCHP Shows Negative Expectancy
With 50.0% win rate and -0.42% average gain, MCHP alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider MCHP for short-selling strategies.
📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →Why Analyze MCHP with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MCHP. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, MCHP historically offers an average upside of +2.04% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 MCHP Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, MCHP shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests MCHP may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: MCHP shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.42%). This suggests MCHP is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.